‘Taiwan is very well prepared for a Chinese attack’

First modification: 08/08/2022 – 17:35

RFI: The Chinese newspaper Global Times has described the military exercises of the last days as “unprecedented escalation”. What do you mean?

Valérie Niquet: These are the largest military maneuvers carried out to date. That said, they follow the same pattern that we have seen in the past. The message that China seeks to convey is the possibility of a blockade around Taiwan. The Chinese had already carried out this type of maneuver in 1995-1996, with much fewer resources, but with the same organization. At the time, it was to protest the Taiwanese president’s visit to the United States.

Today, Beijing has greater resources, both sea and naval and air, so the maneuvers are on a much larger scale. The soldiers are closing in on Taiwanese territory, and in some of the exercises they are scheduled to enter Taiwanese territorial waters.

However, we know that there will continue to be a lot of noise about these maneuvers. The Chinese will increase the threat precisely to put pressure on others and try to dissuade those who seek to maintain or establish relations with Taiwan that are too close for their liking.

You have to be aware of how close China actually gets to the Taiwanese coast and whether it actually enters Taiwanese airspace. All this will give us an indication of the seriousness of the situation.

RFI: The Taiwanese military has indicated that it is “preparing for war without seeking it.” What will be the attitude of Taipei during these exercises?

Valérie Niquet: Although Taiwan is obviously vigilant and will fly its planes to escort and repel Chinese planes if they enter its airspace, we can be sure that both Taiwan and Taiwan’s allies – like the United States – will be extremely restrained in your response to avoid an escalation.

Keep in mind that their pilots are much better trained than the Chinese, so they will do their best to ensure there are no slips, whatever the Chinese provocations, as long as we stick to the exercises.

When faced with a country like China that frequently declares that it wants to conquer Taiwan in the name of reunifying the nation, you obviously train for an attack. This is what the Taiwanese army has done. Taiwan has no intention of attacking China today, but it is preparing for this eventuality.

RFI: Neighboring countries are also concerned, including Japan. Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi called on Thursday for the “immediate end” of these military exercises, fearing a “serious impact on peace and stability in the region.” What impact on Japan if they continue?

Valérie Niquet: Japan is on the front line. It is home to the largest US bases in Asia. Okinawa and the southernmost islands of the archipelago are only about 100 kilometers from Taiwan. Therefore, if there is a crisis or even a war in the Taiwan Strait, Japan will definitely be in the front line.

In addition, Tokyo has very close economic ties with Beijing. The country is very attentive, both to defend common values, that is, democracy and the need to fight against Chinese pressure, as well as to preserve its own economic interests.