Al Assad takes advantage of “earthquake diplomacy” and the rapprochement between Tehran and Riyadh to return to the international stage
15 Apr. (EUROPE PRESS) –
The realignment of forces in the Middle East, represented by the agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran to resume their relations, has Syria among its main actors, which has seen how many countries in the region have begun to reopen their doors to Damascus after more than a decade of isolation in response to the outbreak of war in 2011.
The signing of the agreement between Riyadh and Tehran, rival powers faced in several of the wars in the region, has meant a shift in the area that has also revealed a growing weight in international diplomacy by China, which seems to leave a stage behind. in which he chose to maintain a position of non-alignment in the main conflicts.
The agreement, signed in March, was a setback for US interests in the Middle East, where it counts Saudi Arabia as one of its main allies, at a time when both the United States and Israel consider that the threat from Tehran is increasing through of its nuclear program and its involvement in the region.
Indeed, the pact came amid US efforts to increase pressure on Tehran and after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reached out to Riyadh to normalize diplomatic relations. Thus, the rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran represents a drastic shift in the region, also reflecting the shift towards multipolarity at the international level.
The agreement between Tehran and Riyadh – which comes after the Gulf countries signed another in January 2021 to solve the diplomatic crisis with Qatar – was applauded by the countries of the region, considering that it could help reduce tensions and even bringing the possibility of peace agreements in active conflicts closer, something that has materialized in the latest contacts in Yemen to try to end the war unleashed in 2015.
In this context, Saudi Arabia has been one of the main promoters of the regional reintegration of Syria –which in recent months has resumed contacts with other countries, such as the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Oman and Tunisia–, even inviting to Damascus to participate in the summit that the Arab League will hold in Jeddah on May 19.
The experts Malik al Abdé and Lars Hauch argue in an article published by the Atlantic Council ‘think tank’ that the recent diplomatic turn is due to the fact that the rulers of the countries of the region “are scared” at the strength of China, the ” revenge” of Russia and the weight of Iran. “In addition, the allies of the United States in the region are losing everywhere,” they emphasize, before arguing that these positions are intended to show a “commitment to neutrality in a global struggle for dominance between two power blocs that they consider equivalent from the moral point of view.
POSSIBLE RETURN TO THE ARAB LEAGUE
Syria was expelled from the Arab League after the outbreak of the war in 2011 due to the violent repression of pro-democratic demonstrations in the framework of the so-called ‘Arab Spring’, which led to a conflict in which numerous countries provided aid to a myriad rebel groups fighting Bashar al Assad’s forces.
Among the main supporters of the rebels are Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar, while Iran backed Al Assad. Russia’s military intervention in 2015 brought about a change on the battlefield and allowed government troops to retake much of the lost territory, with front lines stalemate for several years.
The push for Syria’s return to the Arab League has the backing of Saudi Arabia and nuanced support from Egypt. Both are allies of Western countries, although they have maintained an independent stance on aspects of regional politics. This position is interpreted by analysts as a change of third on the part of Arab countries that consider that greater coordination would be more beneficial than clashes with Iran, which maintains good relations with Russia and China.
However, there is reluctance to the Saudi plans to heal the differences and welcome Syria back into the Arab League, a plan supported by the Emirati authorities. Thus, sources quoted by ‘The Washington Post’ have detailed that Yemen, Morocco, Kuwait and Qatar reject the return of Damascus to the body, while pointing out that Egypt is showing reluctance. All these countries ask Al Assad for a political process with the opposition in the face of international rehabilitation.
Al Assad has so far shown no willingness to make political change in the country, a possibility that seems even more remote thanks to the support of Iran and Russia and the willingness of several countries in the region to recognize that he remains firmly in charge of Syria. , plunged into a deep crisis and practically devastated by war.
The Syrian president has tried, however, to approach other capitals to obtain support and, especially, financing to revive the Syrian economy and begin reconstruction. In this context, he has used the earthquakes registered in February in southern Turkey, which left thousands dead in the Arab country, as a spearhead to demand funds and international aid.
In fact, after the earthquakes, the Syrian authorities redoubled their complaints about the impact of the sanctions on the population and pointed out that they represent a fundamental obstacle to supporting civilians, at the same time that they demanded their withdrawal and the channeling of humanitarian aid through Damascus, which does not control areas in the northwest – in the hands of the rebels – and the northeast – managed by the Kurdish authorities -.
CRITICISM FROM THE MAIN OPPOSITION COALITION
Given these events, the Syrian Opposition Coalition (SOC) has called on Saudi Arabia to “reconsider its position regarding the criminal regime” of Al Assad and has stated that the participation of the Syrian Foreign Minister, Faisal Mikdad, in the summit in Jeddah ” would send a deeply troubling message.” “The regime has committed countless heinous crimes against the Syrian people and this decision adds to the complexity of an already fragile political process,” he warned.
Thus, he recalled that “the Al Assad regime has never shown a true commitment to the political process and has deliberately obstructed all attempts to apply United Nations sanctions”, before stating that “it has resorted to atrocious tactics”. as “terrorism” to “repress the Syrian people, who have been asking for freedom for more than twelve years”.
The SOC has emphasized that “no rapprochement with the Al Assad regime will lead to a political solution, but will reinforce the authority of a war criminal and will only lead to more massacres and atrocities against the Syrian people”, for which it has done an appeal “to everyone” to “fulfill their moral and human responsibility and condemn, punish and isolate a war criminal”.
For its part, the non-governmental organization Human Rights Watch has asked “not to rush” when it comes to normalizing relations with Syria and has asserted that it is necessary for Damascus to adopt concrete measures for the return of refugees and displaced persons, release detainees, reveal the whereabouts of the disappeared and reform the security apparatus in order to improve the situation of the population.
“Without real accountability and reform there is little reason to believe that these practices will stop,” said Hiba Zayadin, a Middle East and North Africa researcher at HRW, who has said that these reforms are necessary for “a peace durable and prosperous Syria after the conflict”.
