Survey: inflation will fall more slowly

The Economic Expectations Survey among analysts, carried out by the Bank of the Republic in December, showed that although the entity has applied a restrictive monetary policy, neither in 2025 nor in 2026 would it be fulfilled on time. the inflation projection, although this would remain within the upper range set by the Issuer.

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According to the sample applied by the Colombian central bank among 39 analysts and entities on December 9 and 11by the end of 2024 it is estimated that the variation of the Consumer Price Index in 2024 will reach 5.14%.

It must be remembered that in 2023 inflation was 9.28%, falling below expectations of around 9.5%.

Regarding the estimates of those consulted by the Issuer for December 2025, the variation of the CPI would reach 3.81%, that is, 1.33 percentage points below the figure with which the indicator would close this year .

And as for what economic analysts think for 2026, the average It is 3.30% with a decrease of 50 basis points or half a percentage point compared to 2025.

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The specific goal that Bank of the Republic has on the variation of Consumer Price Index long term is 3% with an acceptable range of 4% or 2%.

In 2018 the variation of the CPI was 3.18%, that is, it was the most recent year in which the specific goal was about to be met.

In 2020, the first year of the pandemic, the CPI indicator was 1.61%, a figure that showed the reality of the deep economic crisis that Colombia and almost all countries experienced closures and confinements, which this evil forced to avoid more infections and deaths.

The interest rate

The analysts were also consulted about their expectations regarding the intervention rate of the Issuer and said that in 2024 it will close at 9.25%, that is that at the meeting on Friday, December 20, it will drop 50 basis points, in 2025 it will drop to 6.50% and in 2026 to 6.00%.

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Finally, the analysts expressed that the expectation of closing of the Representative Market Rate for This year it is $4,350, in 2025 up to $4,316 and by 2026 it will be $4,246 on average.

Holman Rodríguez Martínez