Staggering rise in temperatures for the Middle East and North Africa

Nov 21. () –

The Middle East and North Africa, which already include some of the hottest and driest places on Earth, will reach warming thresholds two or three decades before the rest of the world.

By 2100, parts of the Arabian Peninsula could experience up to 9 degrees Celsius of heating.

The region, which already has record summer temperatures, is currently close of exceeding 2 degrees Celsius of warming on average compared to pre-industrial temperatures. Additional warming in the region could make some areas uninhabitable without adaptation measures.

“When we talk about the Paris Agreement, we say that we should try to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, and that we should not go above two degrees Celsius,” he said. in a statement Abdul Malik, a climate scientist at King Abdullah University of Science and Technology and lead author of the study. “But in some parts of the Middle East and North Africa, warming has already exceeded 1.5 and 2 degrees Celsius.”

The research was published in JGR: Atmospheres.

The Middle East and North Africa are predominantly desert ecosystems, with most of the population living in coastal areas. Previous climate model predictions have overestimated and underestimated warming in the region, leaving scientists unable to gain a more nuanced understanding of warming across the region.

In this study, researchers used the CMIP5 and CMIP6 models to analyze the Middle East and North Africa at high spatial resolution (81 square kilometers, or about 50 square miles) and understand warming in the region in more detail.

“Although previous studies have shown that the region is warming much faster than other areas, we have shown that the rate of warming is not constant across the region,” Malik said. ““And this rate of warming could vary between 1.5 and 3.5 times faster than the global average.”

The rapid pace of warming means the Middle East and North Africa could reach 3 and 4 degrees Celsius almost three decades earlier than most of the world. This warming will be especially rapid in the interior areas of the Arabian Peninsula.

The Middle East and North Africa include some of the warmest regions on the planet, and researchers predict the warming will continue to be dramatic. The study found that the central Arabian Peninsula is already warming up to three times faster than the rest of the world. That pace is similar to warming in the Arctic.

By 2100, the Arabian Peninsula could warm by an average of 2.6 degrees Celsius under low emissions scenarios, and 7.6 degrees Celsius in high emissions scenarios.

This is because the dry deserts of the Middle East and North Africa cannot be easily cooled through the evaporation of soil moisture, in contrast to their humid equatorial counterparts in other parts of the world.

“Desert regions warm almost as quickly as polar regions and have much higher temperatures,” said Georgiy Stenchikov, a retired climate scientist and one of the study’s co-authors. “Therefore, “The temperature threshold is reached much faster than in the polar regions.”

Due to coastal cooling, densely populated areas along the southern and western coasts of the Arabian Peninsula, including Oman, are currently not warming as quickly as inland areas and the eastern coast of the peninsula.

Warming rates are not constant across the seasons. Researchers found summer hot spots in the central Arabian Peninsula, including the populous province of Riyadh, and Algeria, and winter hot spots in Mauritania and the Elburz Mountains of Iran.

If the world meets low emissions targets, the rate of warming in the Middle East and North Africa could be reduced by up to 38%. Individual cities too they could try to adapt to extreme heat through architectural and urban greening solutions.

“Adaptation will be necessary, and these adaptation measures could be tested and developed in the Middle East and North Africa,” Stenchikov said. “Global warming is a global problem, so it cannot be prevented in one place, but artificial environments can be developed in regions with large populations.”