South Korea records largest increase in births in 12 years

Amid an alarming demographic panorama, South Korea recorded a significant increase in the number of births in July 2024, the largest increase in 12 years. According to data provided this week by the National Statistics Officethe country experienced a 7.9% growth in the number of babies born, which is equivalent to 1,516 more births compared to the same month last year. Therefore, a total of 20,601 babies arrived in the world in July, marking the largest year-on-year increase for this month since 2012.

This uptick in births represents a momentary but very important change in the declining trend of South Korea’s birth rate. The country faces one of the most serious demographic challenges globally due to its low fertility rate and rapidly aging population.

South Korea’s National Bureau of Statistics attributed this increase to the decision of many couples to hold weddings after postponing them during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. This resulted in a surge in marriages between the second half of 2022 and the first half of 2023.

Despite the encouraging news, the general context remains difficult. During the first seven months of this year, the number of total births decreased by 1.2%, reaching 137,913. These data reflect a persistent decline in the country’s fertility rate.

The global fertility rate (TFR), which measures the average number of children a woman is expected to have throughout her lifetime, hit a record low of 0.71 in the second quarter of 2024. This number is well below of the threshold of 2.1 children per woman necessary to maintain a stable population without depending on immigration.

This phenomenon is not new: since the fourth quarter of 2019, the nation has experienced a death rate higher than the birth rate. This fact underlines the depth of its demographic crisis.

The Asian country has been dealing with accelerated population aging for several years, which is why it is projected that, by the year 2072, it will become a super-aged society. It is estimated that the average age, which was 44.9 years in 2022, will be 63.4 years by 2072.

If the situation continues, in that same period the total population would be drastically reduced, going from the current 52 million to approximately 36 million people. The peak numbers of the South Korean population were reached in 2020, and since then it has begun to progressively decrease.

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According to official data, 18,811 couples got married in July 2024. This represents an increase of 32.9% compared to the same month in 2023. This was the largest year-on-year increase for any month of July since the National Statistics Office began collecting data on marriages in 1981.

The pandemic, which had delayed ceremonies for many couples, is believed to have left its mark on the country’s family structure.

However, in this case it is not all good news regarding marital relations in South Korea either. The number of divorces also increased in July, reaching 7,939, representing a growth of 5.9% compared to the same month last year. This increase is a clear reflection of the challenges couples face in a country where economic and social pressures strongly shape family decisions.

On the other hand, the country faces profound changes in its social and economic structure. High housing prices and fierce competition in the labor market are two very important factors that are pushing young South Koreans to postpone or give up the idea of ​​getting married and having children.

At the same time, social norms are changing: more and more people are choosing lifestyles that do not include marriage or parenthood.

Amid these discouraging trends, the South Korean government faces a daunting task in reversing demographic decline. While the increase in July births offers a small hope, the long-term forecasts remain worrying.

Experts say that without effective measures to address structural issues, such as access to affordable housing and creating a more inclusive work environment, South Korea will continue on its path toward an aging and demographically declining society, with implications for far-reaching for its economy and social cohesion.