The leftist Sinn Fein of Mary Lou McDonald has obtained 21.1% of votes in the general elections held this Friday in Ireland, compared to 21% of the Fine Gael of the prime minister, Simon Harrisand 19.5% of the centrist Fianna Fáil of Michael Martinaccording to an exit poll.
The survey released by the public broadcaster RTE confirmed the equality of the three large formations and opens the possibility of centrists and Christian Democrats re-editing the historic government coalition of the last four years, in which the Greens also entered, who now obtain 4 %.
He count will begin this Saturday and the first provisional results could be known by mid-afternoon, which will give an idea of the number of seats that the parties will obtain based on the transfer of votes between candidates, as allowed by the complex Irish electoral system.
Harris already warned today that “several fascinating days” are ahead, as she recalled that the aforementioned poll may point to the party with the most votes, which does not mean, she specified, that it will end up with more seats in the Lower House (Dáil), made up of 174 deputies.
This is what happened to the leader of Sinn Féin and the opposition, Mary Lou McDonald, who won the popular vote in 2020, but was left one seat behind Fianna Fáil after the transfer of votes.
The failure of the nationalist leader to form a Government gave way to the historic coalition between centrists and Christian Democrats, rivals since the Civil War (1922-1923), who have shared power since then.
“Compare this with the British system. The Big Ben clock strikes at 10 o’clock.” SkyNews says who has won. Our system is different,” celebrated the taoiseach (Prime Minister) as he cast his ballot early this morning in his County Wicklow constituency, south of Dublin.
technical tie
The latest polls had given the three parties support of around 20%, a technical tie caused by the fall in popularity of Harris – until recently the favorite -, the comeback of McDonald and the stability of Martin, deputy prime minister and taoiseach between 2020 and 2022.
For this reason, Martin declared himself this Friday “cautiously optimistic” about his chances of victory, given that he is the most popular candidate when it comes to receiving transfers of votes from other parties and candidates, to the point that even the Christian Democrats, internally, give him as a favorite.
Por su parte, McDonald destacó asimismo su “optimismo, esperanza, confianza y ambición” para convertirse tras el recuento en el primer dirigente del Sinn Féin que llega al poder en Dublín y acabar con la hegemonía de los dos grandes partidos.
“Este es el momento en el que la gente puede realmente dar forma al próximo Gobierno, y necesitamos un nuevo Gobierno”, agregó la dirigente nacionalista.
Obligados a pactar
Con tanta igualdad, los tres partidos estarán obligados a buscar pactos entre ellos y/o con otras fuerzas minoritarias, en tanto que Harris y Martin se han mostrado a favor de reeditar, si lo necesitasen, el pacto de la pasada legislatura, en el que entraron los Verdes, al tiempo que ya han descartado al Sinn Féin.
Los tres líderes también podrían mirar al bloque de los independientes, que obtiene el 14,6% de votos, mientras que formaciones como el Partido Laborista y el Social Demócrata reciben el 5 y el 5,8%, respectivamente, y se postulan como posibles socios.
Lo más probable, según los observadores, es que Martin y Harris vuelvan a coligarse, aunque su número de escaños determinará quién lidera las negociaciones y quién será el nuevo taoiseach, un cargo que podría volver a ser rotatorio.
Durante la campaña, democristianos y centristas destacaron la buena marcha de la economía y pidieron el voto para mantener la estabilidad financiera en un país próspero, pero afectado por una grave crisis de la vivienda, el deterioro de los servicios públicos y el repunte de la inmigración.
Por su parte, el Sinn Féin volvió a llevar esas problemáticas al centro de su programa para tratar de repetir el éxito electoral de hace cinco años, al que ha sumado ahora un plan para celebrar un referéndum sobre la reunificación de Irlanda antes de 2030.
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