silence from Beijing and fear of instability in Moscow

Even on Chinese social networks today there is talk of what is happening in Russia, while the official media spread the news of the “anti-terrorist” mobilization. A crisis that fuels the dangers of disintegration in Russia is Xi Jinping’s worst nightmare. Putin telephoned Kazakh President Tokaev, who responded by defining what is happening as an “internal Russian affair”.

Beijing ( / Agencies) – No official position has been taken, as is obvious in a still troubled situation. But even in China the news from Moscow and Rostov-on-Don about the Wagner group mutiny is closely followed. Chinese government-controlled news portals report Putin’s televised speech this morning and the “anti-terrorist measures” taken in Moscow, amid reports of the heat wave hitting Beijing and photographs from from all over China for the Dragon Boat Festival. But even on Chinese social media, Russia and Prigozhin have jumped to the top of the trending topics since this morning. And there is no shortage of readings from the East, such as those of Internet users who on Weibo compared the Prigozhin crossing with the (failed) uprising of February 26, 1936 in Japan, when military sectors tried to settle accounts with rival factions shouting “let’s throw the traitors”.

The palaces of power in Beijing are silent for now, but it is not difficult to imagine that the scenario that is materializing in these hours is the worst from the point of view of President Xi Jinping. Under the cloak of “unlimited friendship” between China and Russia, since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Beijing’s main concern has been to affirm the principle of “territorial integrity” of the territories involved. A concern that, evidently, also contemplates the internal tensions of the People’s Republic of China, beginning with the question of the independence of Xinjiang. On the contrary, the prospect of an internal confrontation between Russian militias could further weaken Moscow’s hold, fueling disintegration sentiments already present in many outlying regions. Not to mention the possible economic repercussions of a possible situation of instability, in a context already greatly weakened by the conflict in Ukraine and Western sanctions, and the reflection of a possible Russian collapse also in the Pacific area.

As for the meetings with Prigozhin in Beijing a few weeks ago, the skepticism about Chinese diplomatic initiatives was not lost on the Wagner commander’s statements a few weeks ago. “There is an optimistic scenario in which I do not believe very much,” he had said on May 25, “that Europe and the United States will tire of the Ukrainian conflict and China will bring everyone to the negotiating table. We would agree that everything that we have already conquered is ours, and everything else is not ours.” “This scenario is unlikely to be possible,” he had added, considering a Ukrainian counter-offensive and even “some success on their part” much more likely.

Also intertwined with the Chinese board are the possible repercussions that an eventual crisis in Moscow would have in Central Asia. It is no coincidence that one of the first phone calls Putin made this morning was to Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokaev, the former Soviet zone’s most reluctant ally in recent times, who has long been trying to juggle Moscow, Beijing and the West. To Putin’s apparent call to close ranks, Tokaev responded that “what is happening is an internal Russian affair.”