seduce Meloni to secure a partner in the Ukraine war

With the noise of the war in Ukraine as a backdrop, both countries have taken the opportunity to try to seduce who will presumably be the new prime minister of a country that is the third economic power of Europe and the second European importer of Russian gas. Everyone, of course, has their reasons.

Shortly after the results of the Italian elections last Sunday were known, the spokesman for the Russian Presidency, Dimitri Peskov, assured that the Kremlin “is ready to welcome any political force able to look beyond the mainstreamfull of hatred towards our country, and show objectivity and a constructive posture”.

[“Dios, patria y familia”, el lema fascista con el que Giorgia Meloni gobernará Italia]

Some statements that only widen the fear of Brussels that the new coalition government of Italy distances itself from the line established on the invasion of Ukraine. Namely, the fear that relaxes and even suppresses the sanctions imposed on Russia with the aim of suffocating its economy and thus stopping its war machine.

And it is not that Meloni has aligned himself with the Russian president, Vladimir Putin. Quite the contrary: in recent weeks it has been declared openly Atlanticist and has reiterated its support for kyiv. However, his coalition partners, whom he needs to get to Palazzo Chigi, take an opposite stance.

Berlusconi, who has been friends with Putin for 20 years, has condemned the Russian invasion from the start. He has done it, yes, timidly, and just a few days ago he tried to excuse him by saying that the Russian president was seen “pushed“to start the”special operation” in Ukraine.

Salvinion the other hand, has never come to condemn Putin’s actions, has openly questioned the effectiveness of European sanctions and drags a pro-Putin past that many have brought up in the face of last Sunday’s vote.

It is precisely that dissonance what the Kremlin wants to take advantage of. And it is that the war in Ukraine has been a central to the election campaignabove all because of the consequences it has had on citizens, such as the explosion in energy prices.

In this sense, with the new government, half eurosceptic, Italy is Russia’s friendliest partner within an increasingly hostile bloc (the European one). A potential partner with whom, in addition, he has maintained for years strong economic and diplomatic ties. At least until Mario Draghi came to power in 2021.

Only on a commercial level, before the war, Italy imported the 40% of its gas from Russia, although the transalpine country has three gas infrastructures with Algeria. Thus, the closing of the ranks of the EU has hit the Italians hard, who, in addition to the energy crisis, face a public debt which exceeded 150% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2021.

Italy’s economy is failing and Meloni needs money so that the unstable political situation in Italy does not expel her a few months after coming to power. Hence has softened its eurosceptic stance in recent months: €191.5 billion of Next Generation EU funds are at stake.

However, Putin is also aware of the delicate situation in the country. And taking advantage of the close relationship he has with Berlusconi and Salvini, which open the door to lifting sanctions for the war in Ukraine, could try to tempt Meloni to break with the community consensus in exchange for energy. A even cheaper energy, like the one it is selling to China and India. In this way, the Kremlin would get divide and weaken to Europe, on the one hand, and increase your income for the other.

[India se convierte en la “puerta trasera” del petróleo ruso que Europa y Estados Unidos rechazan]

USA

On the other side of the Atlantic, the US also wants to seduce Meloni. US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinkenassured this Monday that Washington “is eager” to work with the new Italian Executive on issues such as the war in Ukraine or Human Rights.

“Following this Sunday’s election, we look forward to working with the Italian government on our shared goals: supporting a free and independent Ukraine, respecting human rights and building a sustainable economic future. Italy is a vital ally, a strong democracy and a valued partner.”Blinken has specified on his official Twitter profile.

Meloni has assured on numerous occasions that he intends to carry out a balanced fiscal policy and will advocate the unity of the EU and NATO partners to support Ukraine against Russia.

When Meloni’s candidacy began to take shape and she began to be seen as the favorite in the Italian elections, she herself wanted to calm the spirits of her European partners and recorded a video intervention in French, English and Spanish. Her objective was to ensure that her victory would not be an earthquake or cause ruptures within the EU.

[La UE no felicita a Meloni mientras la ultraderecha europea saca pecho por los Fratelli d’Italia]

“I have read that a victory of Brothers of Italy can be something disastrous, that it would cause an authoritarian turn, that Italy could leave the euro and a series of other nonsense things. None of that is true,” assured the Roman leader in that intervention.

In fact, according to international and Italian media reports, Meloni has been in direct contact with mario draghi and other political leaders to make the transition of power as comfortable and smooth as possible. The objective is none other than to avoid a spiral of crisis in these times of economic uncertainty, according to European analysts and officials. Reuters.

For Marc Lazar, a specialist in Italian politics who works for the ‘think tank’ Institut Montaigne, what has been sought is that Meloni “understands how important certain issues are to prevent him from spoiling the achievements made so far.”

That is why in Washington Meloni’s victory has not caused concern and they trust that he will maintain the line followed by Draghi. “This narrative that everything is going to be a disaster with the coming to power of the Brothers of Italy does not meet our expectations”US officials say.

Meloni’s victory in Italy has been overwhelming, but if we stick to his declaration of intent, it does not seem that he is going to generate a political earthquake in Europe, much less a ‘tsunami’ on the other side of the Atlantic.