Seasonal discounts are already irresistible, but the best deals are yet to come

() — The stores have an excess of merchandise this Christmas season and maintain attractive pre-Christmas discounts.

But the deals will get juicier.

So if you have the patience and willpower to wait and score some bargains, you will be richly rewarded.

“The best deals are always in the last week before Christmas,” said Marshal Cohen, senior retail industry adviser at market research firm NPD. But for the best deals, it’s even better to wait until “just after Christmas.”

The Saturday before Christmas, also known as Super Saturday, is usually the busiest shopping day of the gift-buying period between November and December. Since Christmas Day falls on a Sunday and Christmas Eve falls on the Saturday before, Super Saturday this year fell on December 17. It is estimated that more than 158 million consumers shop on this day, according to the National Retail Federation.

Shoppers have completed half of their purchases, NRF estimates. With Christmas eight days away and shipping deadlines approaching, people have a lot more shopping to do.

It remains to be seen if consumers will show up with momentum during the final stretch. The government reported Thursday that retail sales slowed in November, at the start of the Christmas shopping season.

“This year is very unique. Consumers are being very cautious. They deal with inflation and tighter budgets that affect their spending power,” said Adam Davis, CEO of Wells Fargo.

As consumers carefully plan their holiday spending, Davis said the budget for travel and entertainment is also being cut from their budgets.

“All of these dynamics will benefit consumers because retailers are overstocked,” he said. “There will be a big push this weekend from retailers who have excess inventory to sell at any cost, because they want to start 2023 with less merchandise and free of excess, especially if the economic headwinds worsen.”

It is also costly for retailers to sustain an excess supply of merchandise for too long. Retailers who stock merchandise in their own warehouses and distribution centers have a finite amount of space to work with, with some leeway to accommodate excess inventory. But the costs will increase in case they need more space for an extended period.

Also, unsold products lose value over time. That’s especially true with trendy clothes, since savvy shoppers won’t buy last year’s clothes if they’re out of style. Stores are then forced to make deep discounts, which affects profitability.

Long before the last full weekend before Christmas, stores this year were already offering discounts of 50% to 60% and adding free shipping for online orders.

“I’ve studied the holiday season for 20 years and I’ve never seen discounts this deep,” said Ross Steinman, a professor of consumer behavior at Widener University in Chester, Pennsylvania.

“Retailers are very nervous,” he said. “Time is ticking and they know that now they have to maximize every opportunity to get consumers to make purchases.”

After Christmas sales

Some seasonal products will have great sales (think 80% or 90% off) right after Christmas.

You can expect to buy Christmas perfumes and cosmetics, toys, Christmas ornaments and decorations, candles and artificial Christmas trees at fairly low clearance prices, Davis said. The most intense promotions should even extend to some electronic products.

Walmart, Target, Gap, Macy’s and Kohl’s all struggled with an oversupply of clothing throughout the year. This is likely to mean that prices for winter clothing such as coats, sweaters, boots, scarves and hats will drop even further as chain stores look to transition into the New Year to fresh spring and summer.

“Retailers want to start selling for the next big holiday, which is Valentine’s Day,” Davis says. “In the typical retail cycle, stores gear up for spring merchandise in February, so they have to quickly move past holiday merchandise and winter apparel.”

But before rushing off to hunt down New Year’s deals, Davis offered some advice: “Check the return policy. We have seen retailers truncate the 30 to 60 day window to 15 days or designate it as final sale.”