Scholz’s party arrives weakened at the European elections, with the extreme right on the rise

The Christian Democrats, backbone of the European People’s Party, favorites to win

June 2 () –

As the extreme right gains strength in Europe, the German Government faces the challenges of its own political reality: disaffection and the latest controversies surrounding the Executive led by Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats could drag down the main coalition partner to a third place in the European elections that will take place next weekend.

With an eye on a clear victory for the Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU), the cornerstone of the European People’s Party (EPP), the polls point to a possible setback for the coalition formed by the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the Greens and the Free Democratic Party (FDP), which could end up placing itself behind the controversial AfD.

While the popularity of the Greens and the SPD has been affected during the last three years of their mandate, the liberals of the centrist party FDP have benefited, according to the latest polls by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen. The data collected during the last week of May suggests that the CDU/CSU could take 30 percent of the votes, results somewhat higher than those obtained in 2019, while the SPD and the AfD would currently maintain a technical tie with 14 percent of endorsements.

This situation favors some Christian Democrats who seek to unite the votes of the center-right to win elections that would once again elevate the current president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, who has opened the door to figures such as the Italian Giorgia Meloni. Projections indicate that the EPP could take 22.9 percent of the votes and 183 seats in the Chamber, above the 178 it already has.

Von der Leyen, who has turned her back on the AfD – expelled from her own group in the European Parliament due to the scandals accumulated by her main candidate – seeks in this way to add the necessary support to achieve a second term at the head of the AfD. Commission.

The far-right, who since 2023 have been the second most voted force in the country, are called to win three more seats in the European Parliament despite the controversy caused by party members over the last year; from meetings in Potsdam to discuss the deportation of Germans with a “migrant background” to controversial statements about the crimes committed by members of the Nazi SS.

Maximiliam Krah, AfD candidate for the European elections, has had to leave the leadership of the party after the pressure he suffered for his comments about the commanders of what was the main military force of Nazi Germany. The case has led the CSU general secretary, Martin Huber, to ask that he leave his seat as an MEP. However, despite the arrest of one of his advisors accused of espionage, he remains the head of the ultra party’s list.

But he is not the only one: recent scandals have led the German Police to search the Berlin home of number two on the list, Petr Bystron, as part of an investigation into money laundering and bribery linked to pro-Russian networks.

This has translated into a decline in support in Germany for a party that has been left out of the Identity and Democracy group and is now fighting for second place with Scholz’s SPD, clearly affected by the ups and downs of its management and the case of espionage by Russia, which would have intercepted a high-level conversation between the military.

However, the extreme right – which has also decided to stay outside the code of conduct signed by the main German politicians to avoid lies and develop an objective debate during the campaign – continues to be at the forefront in the polls ahead of the elections. which will take place in September in three federal states of the country: Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg.

The general secretaries of the social democrats, greens and liberals, in addition to the opponents of the CDU and the Left, have committed to reducing tension in a context marked by recent violent attacks against several politicians due to the increase in extremism and polarization in the country.

For their part, The Greens are set to lose six seats, while the Christian Democrats would have 30 MEPs, one more than in 2019. They are followed by The Left, with four seats, and the Liberals, with another four.

THE WAGENKNECHT PARTY

The emergence of the leftist Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht-For Reason and Justice, created by Wagenknecht herself, could win the vote of followers disillusioned with the AfD and achieve the consolidation of a left-wing faction in the European Parliament despite the differences between parties, something that would benefit the Government coalition.

In an attempt to differentiate itself from The Left, the formation for which the German politician was a deputy, the newly created alliance could gain six MEPs despite showing a eurosceptic tone and more conservative ideas, which has sparked criticism from the left and has made Wagenknecht a controversial figure who has stated on several occasions that his policies are conservative on migration.

Despite having been founded last January, the party has already achieved its first victory in the local elections in Thuringia, which historically has a right-wing electorate. However, it remains to be seen if the party manages to seduce AfD voters again during next week’s election.

Meanwhile, the polls suggest that the SPD – which is included in the Group of the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats in the European Chamber (S&D) – could maintain the same number of seats that it currently has, in line with the trend in Europe that guarantees only small victories for the socialists.