If the events of 1917 are taken into account to understand what has happened in the last few hours in Moscow, it is clear that Putin is not Lenin and Prigozhin is not Kornilov. But the juxtaposition suggests the beginning of a new stage, if not a revolution, in Russia at war with the world.
The whole world was put on hold, starting with Russia itself, from the night of Friday, June 23, until the next day, and the billboard play of the “Ukrainian counter-offensive” was completely overshadowed. The spectacular “march on Moscow” by Yevgeny Prigozhin and his orchestra of 25,000 “musicians” was staged, as the mercenary fighters of the group are called -inspired by the German composer Wagner, author of myths that unleash apocalyptic instincts-. A century after a similar march by Mussolini on the capital of the kingdom of Italy, that of Prigozhin has had a course and an outcome completely opposite to those that gave rise to fascism.
Indeed, the blackshirts encountered many obstacles on the way from Milan to Rome, they were temporarily detained in Perugia and it seemed that they could not reach their objective. However, aided by very powerful protectors, the Duce managed to appear before the king and got the government of Italy served on a silver platter. The huge Russians in ski masks, on the other hand, calmly climbed into their trucks and traveled in a single day the almost thousand kilometers from Rostov-sul-Don, the military base of the Russian campaign in the Ukraine – where they were seen off by jubilant crowds – to very close to Moscow. They stopped 200 kilometers earlier, near Tula, and then returned peacefully, having done absolutely nothing.
Amid the apocalyptic tension that has shaken international public opinion over the possibility of a civil war breaking out in one of the largest nuclear powers, there were no reports of armed confrontations, shootings or bombings, not even a skirmish. Only, as a curious fact, there was talk that they had shot down a couple of helicopters, but they didn’t even bother to explain where and why they were flying. Instead of conquering the Kremlin, Prigozhin was pardoned even before a coup attempt trial began, and he went to Belarus with his friend Lukashenko, who suddenly appeared to stop the coup plotter and turned out to be a great mediator, later Thirty years in which he couldn’t even get along with himself. A part of the “musicians” was incorporated into the regular army, another is taking a well-deserved vacation and nobody has anything else to add to the matter.
In this way the leader of the mercenaries has fully recovered his culinary reputation by serving a very spicy and very Russian menu, which according to a local proverb, “you can’t swallow without a pint”. Of vodka, of course. In fact, the first dish that he had presented turned out to be a bit indigestible, among other things due to the excessive preparation time: “Putin’s stew”, which has been opening the “cook” service for a few months now. They even went so far as to say that the tsar had hidden, terrified, in a bunker in St. Petersburg, and that by now he must be preparing to relinquish power and take refuge in Iran or North Korea. Putin spoke live on television just 12 hours after he had started the march, with a rather light speech, and assured that “we will defend our people from traitors and riots.”
Putin’s statement resonated with words evocative of pivotal events in Russian history, from “internal instability” to “revolution.” In the early 17th century, Russia was in danger of being invaded by Poland, and was saved by volunteer militias organized by merchants and princes, allowing the rise of the Romanov tsars. It is the time that is known precisely as “of Instability”, whose conclusion in 1612 is currently the national holiday of November 4, Popular Unity Day. The revolution, on the other hand, refers to that of 1917: in February (actually on March 8) the women of Petrograd had attacked the Winter Palace, expelling without meeting opposition the few cadets who were guarding it. The army had concentrated on the front with Germany and even Tsar Nicholas II had moved close to the lines, not realizing that he was completely losing control of the situation. In the chaos of the following months, before the Bolshevik coup d’état by Lenin and Trotsky, Kerensky’s provisional government did not know which way to go and the army had completely disbanded; Between August and September, General Kornilov tried to take control of the situation, but nobody supported him, and his failure was the final blow that opened the way for the Soviets.
Putin is not Lenin and Prigozhin is not Kornilov, but the juxtaposition suggests the beginning of a new phase – if not a revolution – in Russia at war with the entire world. It could be, as many think, the beginning of the end for Putin himself, unable to govern even his most loyal servants. Or, on the contrary, Prigozhin has organized the whole farce on the orders of Putin himself, who in this way prepares great changes and looks for ways to justify the obvious defeat of the war in Ukraine.
The changes in view seem to be indicated by the “main course” offered by the cook, “grilled generals”, Prigozhin’s great enemies whom he has been trying to roast for months: defense minister Sergej Shoigu, and the head of Staff Valery Gerasimov. Both born in 1955, somewhat younger than Putin, are the men who have guaranteed the post-Soviet transition for thirty years. Shoigu was already in charge of Civil Defense under Yeltsyn, and held many other positions, never getting off the bandwagon of power, in all regime and system transitions. Gerasimov has also always been in the military leadership since the 1990s, and the legacy of the entire Russian-Soviet military school is concentrated in him, as recognized by his disciple Valerii Zaluzhnyj, Commander General of the Ukrainian enemy army. . As the march on Moscow ended, assurances came from the Kremlin that “no one will be fired,” starting with Prigozhin’s two enemies, but their preparation on the Wagnerian gridiron indicates, in effect, that one era has ended and another will soon have to begin. .
Finally, for dessert, we have “Prigozhin’s Belarusian cream”, which can be freely combined and tasted with many other sweet and savory ingredients. The Wagner chief did not want to be subjected, along with his men, to the regular army, and the “union demand” march, as some have called it, now allows him to withdraw in order, to an African or Caribbean Belarus, according to taste and conveniences. Unless he comes back with some other strong menu, and then it will take a lot more than a pint of vodka to digest it.