Russian ruble rises against the dollar and is set to rise further

The ruble rose to below 57 against the dollar on Friday, a 10-day high on Moscow’s volatile currency market, supported by the start of a favorable fiscal period, while Russian stocks were on track to end the week higher. .

At 1158 GMT, the ruble was 2.4% stronger against the dollar at 56.92, its strongest mark since July 5, after falling as low as 59.0525 in volatile trading.

The ruble gained 2.8% to trade at 57.11 against the euro.

The ruble is expected to receive additional support later this month as export-focused companies typically increase the conversion of their foreign exchange earnings to meet local obligations. Tax payments begin on Friday and most are due in the last week of July.

Otkritie Research said the ruble was likely to move into the 50-55 range against the dollar during the July fiscal period.

The ruble is the world’s best-performing currency this year, spurred by several measures, including restrictions on Russians withdrawing savings in foreign currency, designed to protect Russia’s financial system from Western sanctions imposed after Moscow invaded Russia. Ukraine on February 24.

The ruble has also benefited from soaring earnings from commodity exports and a sharp drop in imports that helped triple Russia’s surplus in the first half of 2022 to $138.5 billion.

But the upward pressure on the ruble could weaken as the Russian central bank is expected to cut its benchmark rate from 9.5% at its board of directors meeting on July 22, after Russia posted a drop in prices. to the consumer in June.

On Thursday, the United States sought to facilitate Russian food and fertilizer exports by assuring banks, shipping and insurance companies that such transactions would not breach Washington’s sanctions on Moscow.

“Russian stocks may see some relief after a slight easing of sanctions by the US yesterday,” Alfa Bank said.

The dollar-denominated RTS index .IRTS rose 3.5% to 1,153.1 points. Russia’s ruble-based MOEX index .IMOEX rose 1% to 2,083.0 points, recovering from its lowest point since February 24 of 2,049.44, hit on Thursday.

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