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The renewal of the international agreement on the export of Ukrainian grain, which depends on a green light from Moscow, is crucial for millions of people in the Horn of Africa, the UN warned on Monday. The agreement, which expires in July, has allowed the removal of more than 32 million tons of grain from Ukraine.
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Millions of people in the Horn of Africa – where people are already starving – depend on Russia giving the green light to the agreement on Ukrainian grain exports, which expires in mid-July, the UN warned on Monday, June 26.
“If the Black Sea Initiative is not renewed, East Africa will be hit hard,” Dominique Ferretti, emergency specialist at the World Food Program regional office for Africa, said during a video conference from Nairobi.
“Several countries depend on Ukrainian wheat. Without this wheat, food prices would rise significantly,” he warned, explaining that Ukraine has always been Africa’s “breadbasket.”
In July 2022, Ukraine, Russia, Turkey, and the United Nations signed the Black Sea Grain Initiative to allow Ukrainian grain exports despite Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.
After complicated negotiations, this agreement was extended three times, the last time in May, for 60 days, until July 17. But on June 13, Russia again threatened to withdraw from the agreement, alleging that certain clauses regarding the export of Russian fertilizers continued to be violated, despite successive UN commitments.
Russian President Vladimir Putin also accused kyiv of using the maritime corridors provided for in the agreement to attack the Russian fleet with drones.
The Secretary General of the UN, António Guterres, declared himself “concerned” about the future of the agreement, and kyiv was “little optimistic”.
Without a renewal of the agreement, “households will no longer be able to meet their basic needs,” insisted Dominique Ferretti.
The World Food Program, which provides direct aid to the population, would also be seriously affected, since Ukraine is one of its main suppliers.
The agreement has allowed more than 32 million tons of grain to be taken out of Ukraine.
“Get ready”
The organization has not launched a plan B, but is doing everything possible to preposition food. However, it will be forced to look for other suppliers if the agreement is not extended.
“We have to be prepared for an increase in food insecurity” in case of supply difficulties, stressed Brenda Lazarus from Nairobi, from the Subregional Office for Eastern Africa of FAO, the UN agency for food and agriculture.
He explained that wheat plays an important role in the diet of the population of countries like Somalia and Djibouti. The FAO is supporting local communities to help them replace wheat in the diet, but it is a “very slow” process, said the economist.
Last week, the UN claimed to have “avoided famine” in the Horn of Africa thanks to the collection of 2.4 billion dollars for this region hit by a catastrophic drought due to “climate chaos”.
But the situation remains dire. The number of food insecure people has doubled since 2016 in East Africa (Djibouti, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Uganda, Ethiopia and Sudan), reaching 60 million, Dominique Ferretti pointed out, explaining that this The food crisis is the consequence, above all, of conflicts, drought and floods.
According to the WFP representative, some 83,000 people, including 40,350 in Somalia and 43,000 in South Sudan, are currently in the “disaster” phase (phase 5), the highest level of the food security classification (CSA). . “This means that, on average, these households are eating once or twice a week,” he said.
For the moment, the UN refuses to talk about a general famine, but its officials have repeatedly stated that people are already starving.
*This article was adapted from its original in French.
