Russia wants to end Wagner to hang Bakhmut’s medal

In this sense, the decision of the Ukrainian high command to hold out and even strengthen the defense of the city seems an absolute success, At least in the short term. By forcing Russia and its allies to fight for the city, they assume the risk of losing more men and falling into a possible trap… but at the same time they not only cause a huge number of casualties to the enemy, with what this entails for subsequent offensives , but they delve into the ego problems that have been marking Russian decisions almost since the beginning of the war.

And it is that, at this point, a year after the beginning of the “special military operation”, we are still not clear who is in charge in the Russian army or who makes the decisions. Putin has appointed three general commanders of the armed forces deployed in Ukraine: Alexander Dvornikov“the butcher of Syria”, Sergei Surovikin“General Armageddon” and Valery Gerasimov, chief of the Russian general staff and no bizarre nickname that is known to him. Gerasimov, Sergei Shoigu’s number two in the defense ministry, would be commissioned by Putin to conquer all of Donbas before March 31. The rush presses.

A trap for the Wagner Group

Three commanders seems like a lot in a year, but it is not clear exactly what they command. The Russian army troops continue to fail in all their attempts to advance in Svatove, Kreminna, Siversk and Vuhledar… but they are rarely seen in Bakhmut, the great crusher of men. Bakhmut is a personal commitment of Eugeni Prigozhin, owner of the Wagner Group, and if it has become the epicenter of the combat, it has not been by decision of Dvornikov, nor Surovikin, nor Gerasimov, nor Putin himself, but rather a former cook involved in to military.

In itself, this is already shocking, as it is shocking that he intends to increase his political influence, something that is costing him dearly. Putin has spent twenty-three years in the Kremlin surrounded by palm trees and few have been as faithful to him as Shoigu. To face him is to face a man who knows everything and who manages too many resources to think that he is going to give up easily. Prigozhin seems to have realized it too late and has been sending mixed messages for about a month: he doesn’t know why ammunition is not being sent to him, he threatens to withdraw from Bakhmut, he contradicts the messages of state propaganda and does not hide his fear that, deep down, the Kremlin is letting its private army commit suicide in taking over the city.

According to him Institute for the Study of Waryou may be right. After a downright bad week for Bakhmut’s Ukrainian defenders, the offensive seems to have stalled. The reinforcements sent by Kiev and the commitment shown in the defense of the city will have something to do with it, of course, but the fact that there is not a single command directing the offensive, but two and facing each other also plays a role.

Objective: “eliminate” the Wagner Group

Prigozhin’s thesis, validated by the ISW, is that the Kremlin is leaving Wagner alone to do all the dirty work. And when we say everything, we mean absolutely everything. Shoigu and Gerasimov want Wagner’s men to close the “cauldron” over the city and then clear their way street by street, building by building. All this, without spending too many army resources and using the best men Prigozhin has in his pay.

[El Grupo Wagner admite la “difícil situación” en Bakhmut: Ucrania envía cada vez más reservas]

Everything would have been easier if Ukraine had withdrawn, of course, and Prigozhin came to dream of such a withdrawal, to the point of offering Zelensky a video in agreement to evict civilians and those troops that opted for surrender. Now, victory will have to come at a very high price and it is normal for Prigozhin to wonder if he should pay for it. After all, he is just a businessman. Prigozhin fears that the conquest of Bakhmut will come at the cost of outright slaughter. Snipers shoot day and night from any corner and moving forward becomes more and more difficult. Since Putin has cut off access to the convicts, only the men with a contract remain, the ones who give meaning to the existence of this army of fortune-seekers.

Now, Prigozhin’s problem is that he has no alternative. They have played it and you know it. Either he advances now and fulfills his mission – most likely so that Shoigu and Gerasimov will later send their men to take the honors and hang the medals – or, indeed, he withdraws, betrays Putin and condemns his men and himself. for life. Prigozhin wants to play politician and for that he needs a huge victory military that gives him the prestige that he does not have now. In the Kremlin he is seen as an upstart and that is how he is being treated.

For now, as we said, these confusions and mistrust have paralyzed the offensive almost completely. Prigozhin does not know how to move forward and no one from Moscow seems willing to help him. According to the aforementioned ISW, “the Kremlin’s priority right now is to eliminate Wagner from Bakhmut, which would be slowing down progress in the area.” Let’s take that “eliminate” in a double sense: use them as cannon fodder at first… and then remove them from the middle for when you have to celebrate the conquest. If that day comes, of course, among so much dissension, nothing seems clear.

[De la acería de Azovstal a la metalúrgica de Azom: la próxima batalla infernal en Bakhmut]