Questions are growing about the evolution of the military and economic crisis, and analogies arise with the collapse of the USSR after the war in Afghanistan. For political scientist Galljamov, Tsar Putin is “weakening” and looking for “a way out.” Surprise crisis with Israel, a sign that Putin is beginning to give in to the hawks in the Kremlin. The attempt to “remain in the chair” and the possibility of exile (in Tehran).
Moscow () – The events of the war in Ukraine have extreme consequences for Russia and could turn into a global apocalypse. Many wonder about the possible outcome of the military and economic crisis. Recalling the collapse of the USSR after the war in Afghanistan, one of the imagined scenarios is the departure of Vladimir Putin from the scene. The man who was once seen as an enlightened sovereign, today has become in the eyes of all – at home and abroad – a dictator obsessed with victory, or possible defeat.
One of the most lucid commentators on Russian affairs, the political scientist Abbas Galljamov, gave a long interview to the international edition of Novaja Gazette, the newspaper of Nobel laureate Dmitry Muratov, now closed in Russia. Galljamov believes that Putin “is getting weaker and weaker in everyone’s eyes, and is looking for a way out.” Surprising things have happened in recent weeks: Russia has even begun to discuss with Israel and the agreement on grains – which, strangely, was signed by the defense minister – threatened to explode immediately after its signing.
According to Galljamov, the drift in relations with Israel is a sign that Putin is yielding to the influence of the Kremlin hawks. The political scientist worked for several years in the apparatus of the presidential administration in Moscow and then collaborated with the president of Bashkortostan, the Uralo-Altaic Tatar republic where he was born. He recalls that just two months ago, Putin swore that he wanted to maintain good relations with Israel. At that time he telephoned then-Prime Minister Bennett to apologize for Lavrov’s words about Hitler’s alleged Jewish origins. It is not often that Putin apologizes for mistakes made by his subordinates, and the issue had some repercussions.
However, the Russian Ministry of Justice recently took a much more offensive measure against Jews: it closed down the Russian representation of the “Sokhnut” agency dealing with repatriation to Israel. This decision caused deep irritation in Tel Aviv, as if diplomatic relations were dictated by the courts. However, Moscow has no interest in deteriorating relations with Israel. The Jewish state is home to many citizens of Russian origin and has so far not applied Western sanctions. In addition, it maintains a relative neutrality with respect to Ukraine, and has even refused to sell it weapons.
Galljamov believes that “Putin is no longer able to control the situation, that it is getting out of hand under the influence of the silovikithe men of the security apparatus that surround him”. An indicator of the crisis of the Kremlin dictator is the gradual decline of the internal consensus regarding the special military operation. The risk is that the protests against the president will increase, and in these circumstances , Putin “grants greater powers to the most radical sectors”.
The repression and persecution of respected figures such as Gorinov, Kara-Murza, Jašin and Šišilov has come from hardliners, as has the increasingly extreme rhetoric from figures who used to be relatively moderate, such as former President Medvedev and former Prime Minister Kirienko. Faced with pressure from these sectors, it is not certain that Putin will give up completely; as Galljamov recalls, “even Stalin organized collectivization and then blamed those who implemented it.”
Sometimes Putin punishes his people when they exaggerate, as happened with Nikolai Patrušev, who was removed from the FSB and today is emerging as a possible successor to the president, and an advocate of an even harder line. In reality, according to Galljamov, Putin “is trying to stay in the armchair as long as possible, because he is aware that his departure implies a scenario of uprisings and revolutions in Russia.” It is joked on social networks that the recent visit of Putin to Tehran was actually a rehearsal for a possible flight abroad, and, according to the political scientist, Iran would be “a more suitable destination than others, better than North Korea.”
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