The demobilization of Moscow’s army from all its positions in the country is already an evident fact. According to numerous sources, some personnel and equipment could be transferred from Syria to Africa, first of all to Libya, to the territory under the control of General Khalifa Haftar. Troops returning to Russia are more unlikely to have a significant influence on the Ukraine conflict.
Moscow () – More than three weeks after people began to wonder how Russia could retain its military bases in the new Islamic Syria, the situation is becoming significantly clearer: even those who thought that permanence was possible are now witnessing a true evacuation of Russian troops from all positions. The military columns lining up out of Latakia and Tartus passed by in plain sight, and in some videos Syrian men in military uniforms were seen throwing stones at the Russian trucks from the sides of the road.
Another video showed the exodus of Russian soldiers from the Tiyas air base, also known as T-4 or Tifor, between Homs and Palmyra. The images also show military technology abandoned as the fleeing armies of Bashir Assad’s former regime. About 500 military personnel, according to reports by Russian journalist Anastasia Kaševarova, moved to the Tartus base and then to the Hmeimim air base, from where many flew back to Russia. Satellite images also show the maneuvers of the Russian withdrawal from Syria. The ships prepared to transport the troops remained 8-15 kilometers from the coast, and one of them, the patrol ship Admiral Grigorovich, was filmed refueling from the tunneler Vjazma, which was previously stationed in Tartus, where the Russians evidently no longer have port for their ships.
From the port of Tartus, in fact, the Monolit-B mobile radio surveillance port complex, which had been in operation for many years, was dismantled, while the landing ships Ivan Gren and Aleksandr Otrakovsky headed in that direction, evidently with the task of loading all the equipment that was still left in Syria. In recent days, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stated that Ankara “does not approve” the presence of any foreign military bases in the country, and the Turks allowed Russian planes to fly to the Hmeimim base, despite of having closed airspace to Russia from 2022, allowing them to transport people, but not war material. This contrasts with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s statements that “we don’t know if our soldiers will remain in Syria.”
According to numerous sources, part of the Russian personnel and material could be transferred from Syria to Africa, first of all to Libya, where the contingent of Russian forces is concentrated mainly in the eastern part of the country, in the territory under the control of General Khalifa Haftar, Moscow ally. The Libyan locations most accessible to the Russians are the Al-Jufrah air base, the port and airport of Benghazi and the port of Tobruk, and there have already been Russian flights in those directions. Russia has several more bases in Africa, where it has greatly reinforced its military activities in recent years: in addition to Libya, the most “hospitable” countries are Mali, Central Africa and Sudan, although the transfer of large contingents of war technology would cost it very expensive to Moscow, according to experts’ calculations.
Already today between Libya and Mali there are at least 1,200 Russian volunteers from the “African Corps”, heir to the late Evgenij Prigožin’s Wagner Company, and other satellite images show a peak of activity at the Sudanese maritime base, where the Russians have a agreement to occupy the Red Sea control zone starting in 2019. Since the previous year, the Russians have been stationed in the Central African republic, but commentators rule out excessive dispersion of Russian forces in all these different places. After all, Putin’s priority is not the defense of the various African leaders, but the preservation of his own forces even in distant territories. On the various Telegram channels historically linked to Wagnerian fighters, there is considerable skepticism about Moscow’s ability to maintain control of its positions in Africa, since it no longer has the necessary port of call in Syria.
According to various observers, the contingents that are being evacuated from Syrian bases will not particularly affect the conflict in Ukraine, since they consist of between 5 and 7 thousand soldiers, most of whom are dedicated to logistical operations, in addition to translators, advisors and officers, while the combatants themselves are equivalent to a single battalion, certainly incapable of producing a disruptive effect on the war.
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