RUSSIA Moscow has its eyes on Kazakhstan

Various observers believe that the Russians could start a war against this other former Soviet republic. In the north of Kazakhstan there is a large Russian-speaking population. The western regions, rich in gas and oil, are the most attractive. Putin would intervene to save Kazakhstan “from Western globalist exploitation.”

Moscow () – Speculations are multiplying in the international press about a possible Russian aggression against Kazakhstan, especially in the more Russified northern regions or, possibly, the western ones, richer in natural resources. In the Eurasia Review magazine, the Kazakh political scientist Akhas Tazhutov analyzes the possible scenarios of an annexation of these territories to Russia.

Indeed, Putin might prefer the western oil areas to northern Kazakhstan, where most of the Russian diaspora lives, which would also open the way for him to other Central Asian countries. Ukrainian journalist Dmitry Gordon argues that as soon as Russia manages to finish the military operation in Ukraine, it will turn to the Kazakh steppes, considering that “Putin is obsessed with restoring the Soviet Union”, and Kazakhstan comes right after Belarus and Ukraine on the list.

Tazhutov considers that “today it is difficult to see if it is possible to prevent the third war in Europe from spreading to the Asian territories in the next century, as it has happened before.” In his opinion, the northern territories of Kazakhstan are not very attractive for Russia, because it would be difficult to repeat the accusations of “genocide of Russians” as in Donbass, considering that in reality there is no linguistic or social persecution of the minority. Russian. If it invaded the Petropavlovsk or Pavlodar regions, named after the Russian tsars of the 18th century, Moscow would only manage to dominate economically depressed areas, with a fairly elderly population.

But Russia cannot limit itself to leaving this question at the mercy of circumstances, explains the political scientist on the basis of the statements of Andrej Groznyj, director of the Central Asia sector of the SNG Institute in Moscow. He considers that “Ukraine is a chronic internal enemy, and the war against it is almost a natural phenomenon, while Kazakhstan is controlled by the enemies of Russia, or partly not controlled by anyone, and it is not enough to introduce peacekeeping forces , but it takes a large-scale military campaign.”

Indeed, the regions of Atyrau, Mangistau and western Kazakhstan are the “gateway” to the entire Central Asian region, crucial logistics centers and places of extraction of the most valuable materials. The main Western investors operate in this area: Chevron, Eni, BG Group, BP/Statoil, Mobil, Royal Dutch Shell and Total Energies. European and US companies directly manage the Tengiz, Karačanak and Kašagan fields, from which 80% of Kazakh oil is extracted, most of which is destined for European Union consumption.

Until the invasion of Ukraine, Moscow was not concerned about this massive presence of Western partners in Kazakhstan, since it itself sold vast amounts of oil and gas to Europe. But now the situation has radically changed due to embargoes and sanctions, and Russia cannot afford to serve solely as a conduit for Kazakh gas, since energy materials must necessarily pass through its territory.

Thus, according to Tažutov, the “temptation of the unthinkable” could arise, because an attack on the western parts of Kazakhstan would end up turning into a world conflict. In that case, the ideological motivation of “saving Kazakhstan from Western globalist exploitation” would not only arouse external solidarity from the countries involved, especially since the interests of China, which is very active in Kazakhstan and throughout Asia, would also be affected. Central.