Russia manages to slow down the Ukrainian advance with its bombing but begins to evacuate Kherson

We also know that they follow the continued attacks on neighborhoods on the outskirts of Bakhmut (Artemivsk), in the Donetsk region, but, again, after weeks and weeks of attempts, the conquests are measured in streets. There is no relationship right now between the bloody attacks on residential areas across the country, with a death toll of 20 civilians, and the situation on the battlefield. In fact, the last thing we know, via Reuters, is that pro-Russian officials in Kherson have asked Moscow to evacuate the capital as soon as possible given the imminence of a Ukrainian offensive.

It has also been rumored in the last hours a possible attack from Zaporizhia, going up the southern bank of the Dnieper, towards the Energodar nuclear power plant, although the expected counteroffensive towards Melitopol continues to be postponed. The truth is that the war is currently going through a phase of relocation of resources and men, repair of damage and many threats from all sides, but few facts. Impossible to anticipate where the waves will break in the coming days.

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The bombing of infrastructure

What must be recognized is that, although Russia has failed to turn the situation around, at least it has managed to slow down the Ukrainian advances. The desperation of the past week has given way to a situation of certain tense calm. The bombardments are rare and fighting, even more. On the Russian side, as we said, some of those mobilized are already arriving at the eastern front, although, as expected, without the necessary training for an action of this type, which will probably lead to acts of indiscipline and lower the morale of the regiments, as well as their effectiveness.

Besides, and as a new sign that short-term goal remains defensiveFor days, the pro-Russian media have been publishing images of what would be huge excavations in the style of the “Maginot line” with which France tried to defend itself from Germany during World War II. These long expanses of defensive terrain would not correspond in principle to the Svatove area, as said media published, but rather to the Lisichansk-Zolote axis, which, in practice, almost means a return to the 2015 borders.

Assuming it’s good the initiative remains on the ukrainian side, it is necessary to qualify some questions: from the outset, it is a reality that the bombing of infrastructures in the rear – not so of civilian buildings, which only intend to fuel terror and propaganda – has opened a front of concern with which Ukraine didn’t count anymore. Damage to power plants, generators and drinking water reservoirs not only makes life in the cities difficult, but also forces resources to be diverted from the front.

The problem when analyzing the fruit of such attacks is that the effects are not seen immediately. For once, it seems that Russia could be thinking in the medium term, beyond the urgency of the present. For once, Russia, and specifically Surovikin, could be recognizing in the Ukrainian army an enemy equal to it and not a simple insect to trample on. This summer, for months, Ukraine has been shelling the Russian rear, in no hurry to move forward. Suddenly, one day in September, the lines collapsed and the whole advance came at once. Without a doubt, that is what the Russians intend and it seems a better idea than simply resorting to brute force. Another thing is that it works, of course.

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Direction Svatove and Melitopol

On the Ukrainian side, There are still the consequences of the enormous moral blow received, but also the memory of all those caught and overcome during the atrocious last spring… and the conviction that something like Monday cannot be repeated due to a matter of resources. It is estimated that Russia spent nearly a billion dollars on missiles in one go. Repeating exhibitions of this type is not something that is within your financial reach right now and, in fact, for it to have a lasting effect, it would probably be necessary.

Despite pro-Russian information, there is no evidence that the local forces have lost the territory gained in the Lugansk region (Makiivka, Tors’ke…) and are still waiting for the order to advance towards Kreminna and Svatove, seeking definitive control of the disputed P66 highway that would allow them to then reach the Sievierodonetsk-Lisichansk axis without having to cross the Donets river. Last Sunday it seemed like a matter of hours, but, as we say, the plans changed overnight.

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In the south, the Russians fear an advance towards Vasilivka, in addition to the aforementioned offensive on the capital Kherson. It also seemed like the most logical course of events last weekend and action has also had to be delayed. From Vasilivka, Ukraine could have direct access to the aforementioned Energodar nuclear power plant, with the appropriation of energy resources that this would entail, and, at the same time, it could advance towards Melitopol and Crimea via the E105, dividing in two the territory occupied by the Russians in the first days of the invasion.

Both the offensive on Svatove as the attack heading Vasilivka-Melitopol they are of a tremendous risk and can only be faced with a hundred percent guarantee of success. Otherwise, the Ukrainian troops could be trapped quite easily. It seems that what he is trying right now Surovikin is buying time. The following week will be key to see if Monday’s movement has really stabilized the fronts awaiting the massive arrival of mobilized or if, on the contrary, there is a sudden collapse like those in kyiv, Kharkov or north of Kherson. If we have learned anything in these months, it is that Russia is always weaker than it appears on the ground… and much weaker than its propaganda repeats.