Russia estimates that its economy will contract less than 3% in 2022 and less than 1% in 2023

Latest news on the war between Russia and Ukraine

Latest news on the war between Russia and Ukraine

Aug. 29 () –

The Russian Government estimates that its economy will register a contraction of less than 3% during 2022, while the fall for next year will be less than 1%, according to the latest perspectives released by the country’s deputy prime minister, Andrey Belousov this Monday in the Executive commission in charge of the country’s economy.

The deputy prime minister has indicated that these figures are better than expected and create “good conditions” for the real income of citizens and the tax revenue of the State to grow.

The figures are better than expected despite the context of the war with Ukraine and the sanctions applied by a large part of the developed countries against Moscow. At the end of July, the International Monetary Fund estimated a 6% drop in Russia’s gross domestic product (GDP) this year, while in 2023 the decline would be 3.5%.

In its latest monthly report, released earlier this month, the International Energy Agency explained that through July, Russian crude production had only fallen by 310,000 barrels per day compared to pre-war levels. The country’s production is over 11 million barrels per day.

The Russian economy experienced a year-on-year growth of 3.5% in the first quarter of this year, while in the second quarter it registered a contraction of 4%, according to the latest data released by the Russian statistical agency, Rosstat.

The data from the Russian Executive also represent an improvement compared to the estimates of the Bank of Russia, which expressed last July its confidence that the contraction of GDP in 2022 would be less intense than initially feared, limiting it to a range between 4% and 6%, while for 2023 it would fluctuate between 4% and 1% to grow again in 2024, with an estimated expansion of between 1.5% and 2.5%.