The Secretary General of NATO, Mark Rutteassured this Monday at a press conference that At least 10,000 North Korean soldiers were already in Russian territoryready to confront the Ukrainian troops in Kursk. Pentagon sources affirm that there may be 30,000, while the Friedrich Neimann Foundation, based in Germany, estimated in its latest study that North Korea had sent to Russia weapons worth 5.5 billion since the conflict began.
Rutte described the presence of Kim Jong-Un’s men on the front as “substantial escalation”, although he did not want to be specific about what response NATO was going to give beyond asking its members to continue helping Ukraine in every possible way. Rutte’s speech clashes with that of the Republican candidate donald trump and with that of his possible vice president JD Vance, who refused to describe Putin as an “enemy” in an interview, opting for the term “competitor.”
It is difficult to know exactly what the North Koreans will bring to the war in Ukraine. From South Korea, it is pointed out that Kim Jong-Un is using them as mere “cannon fodder.” There is also talk of little preparation of the troops and little experience in the type of terrain they will encounter, since North Korea is an eminently mountainous country and its training places have little to do with the vast expanses of often snowy plains. from Russia and Ukraine.
The fact that Putin has decided to send this first consignment directly to Kursk, the Russian territory still partly occupied by Ukraine, is the recognition of a failure and a complete lack of concern for its citizens. If the Kremlin had the inhabitants of the region in consideration, it would have sent its best men from the beginning to recover the hundreds of lost square kilometers. However, it has always preferred to send reservists, recent graduates and, now, foreigners who don’t even know what they are getting into.
Selidove’s withdrawal
However, this deployment of foreign troops shows the inability to drive out the Ukrainians with their own means. It has been two and a half months of occupation and the date of October 1 set by Putin as an ultimatum for his general staff is far away in time. The fact that Russia has to turn to a country like North Korea to solve internal problems It is a huge sign of weakness and it is not known exactly what he is offering in exchange for this help.
As regards the Donbasslow but constant progress continues, which is difficult to evaluate. The bad news for Ukraine the thing is there is no change in trend in sight: Oleksandr Syrskyi’s men have been on the defensive for more than a year now and trying to stop Russian advances around Donetsk. This causes rotations to become too long, morale to drop, and retreats to be constant to avoid enemy pocketing maneuvers.
The last of these withdrawals is taking place in Selidovecity southeast of Pokrovskthe great communication center between this part of Donbas and the Kramatorsk-Sloviansk nucleus that serves as the command center of the Ukrainian army in the area. With the capture of Selidove, Russia can choose to launch a more secure rearguard attack on Pokrovsk or attempt a blockade around the town of Kurajove, taking advantage of the advances that are taking place in the south from Vuhledar.
The biggest impediment that Russia may encounter for this maneuver is the presence of the Kurakhivs’ke dam, but if they manage to circumvent it to the west at the height of Andriivka they will have some chance of success. The issue right now is whether Gerasimov and Putin will opt for the quickest route or whether they will continue decimating Ukrainian troops and occupying territory even at the cost of leaving behind thousands of men whose lives they have never taken into much consideration.
Negative dynamics in recent months
Whatever the final decision, the truth is that Ukraine needs some kind of coup or the loss of Donbas will be a matter of time. On the eve of the aforementioned US elections, this coup seems complicated. In recent weeks they have been building defense lines around northern Zaporizhzhia and west of Donetsk, but it is not clear if they will serve to stop the Russians there or simply to prolong a war that has already lasted two years and eight months, practically, to get an idea, the same as the Spanish civil war lasted.
It is time for Ukrainian military leaders to decide whether to continue standing up in Donbas or whether to reserve part of their units and arsenal for the possible defense of nearby oblasts, such as Zaporizhzhia or Dnipro. It is a difficult decision and one that only they can make, but If Ukraine lost US support it could only opt for a bad peace agreementceding at least all the territory already occupied by the Russians, or risking a break in the front that drives enemy troops even further.
It is true that this rupture has been announced for months and never arrives, except, perhaps, in the Ocheretyne salient, but the constant wear and tear and the trend do not invite us to be optimistic. Ukraine is standing up which boasted of being the second best army in the world, losing very little territory and causing colossal losses to its enemy. The last five months, however, since before the summer, have brought a significant increase in the speed of Russian advance, with no signs of it slowing down. That Russian shortcomings are evident, as demonstrated in Kurskshould not avoid some concern for the future.
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