RUSSIA Demographic decline in the Russian Far East

In the last twenty years, the inhabitants of Siberia have decreased by 7%, and those of the Far East by 10.4%. Depopulation no longer only affects agricultural areas, but also affects medium and large cities. And between now and 2050, the effects of climate change could accentuate it even more.

Moscow () – Concern is growing about the downward curve in the number of inhabitants in Russia, due to numerous factors, among which the war in Ukraine is one of the most disturbing in the last two years. Faced with the promises of great economic and social development coming from the Kremlin, in particular thanks to the “turn to the East” of national and foreign policy, the demographic crisis in the Russian Far East becomes even more evident, constituting “a threat to the security of the entire Federation”, according to a report presented a few days ago by Andrej Klepač, chief economist of the Veb.Rf Institute on the topic “Organization of Russian space in the new reality”.

In the words of the expert, “Siberia and the Far East are territories that are still waiting to be populated and made their own, and if we don't do it, someone else will,” alluding mainly to the Chinese and other Asians who are increasing their migration to these lands. . “There is a huge imbalance between the percentages of the Russian population in the Federation territories,” insists Klepač, “and this is particularly evident when comparing the figures for the northern regions of China.

There are three Chinese regions bordering the Russian Far East: Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia and Jilin, with 37.5, 25.5 and 27 million inhabitants respectively. In the adjacent Russian part there are only 7.87 million inhabitants, according to official data as of January 1, 2024, which represents a decrease of 37,500 compared to 2023. This is a real demographic challenge, to which Russia must find adequate responses : Across the country, the decline over the past 20 years is close to 1% of the population, more than 1.5 million fewer people, even taking into account the 3 million added with the annexation of Crimea in 2014. In the In the same period of time, the inhabitants of Siberia have decreased by 7%, and those of the Far East, by 10.4%.

The forecasts for the near future are even more discouraging, reaching a collapse of more than 10% for the entire Asian part of Russia in 2045. The depopulation process mainly affects agricultural areas, but in recent decades it has affected the entire territory, including medium and large cities, according to the report, for which “at least another 10 million people are needed” to maintain acceptable levels of social life. Internal migrations and more or less planned migrations from various countries, not only China, could partially fill these gaps, but they risk being insufficient in any case.

Another worrying fact emerges from the studies offered by the Interdisciplinary Research Center of Human Potential of the Moscow Higher School of Economics, which analyzes climate change by 2050, which, although it may be improving in the European part of Russia is heading towards the worst in several areas of Siberia and the Far East. The increase in humidity and precipitation, together with the speed of the winds in the winter period, especially in the Bajkal area and the Far South, could reduce the areas accessible to the population. In Jacuzia and on the shores of the Sea of ​​Okhotsk, north of the part facing the Pacific Ocean, subsistence conditions will be more difficult, not to mention the lands towards the Arctic Ocean.

The entire Asia-Pacific region is growing, while the Russian side is the most limited in its potential for mutual cooperation and integration, compared to the giants of China, Japan and South Korea. In this phase of serious ruptures and conflicts, the problem is aggravated by the fact that Moscow is an ally of North Korea, the most hostile state to all the others. Moscow is thousands of kilometers from these lands and, despite the proclamations of President Putin and his officials at all levels, the destiny of Asia is increasingly less at Russia's disposal.