Russia assures African countries that they will not be harmed

Concluded in July 2022 and renewed three times since then, the grain export agreement that allowed Ukrainian cereals to be exported through the Black Sea expired on Monday, July 17, due to a lack of agreement with Moscow, which denounces obstacles to the trade of its agricultural products. .

Despite the deep differences between the parties involved and a sometimes chaotic implementation, the agreement had up to now been maintained in the name of defending emerging countries.

In one year, almost 33 million tons of cereals left Ukrainian ports, mainly corn and wheat, helping to avoid the risk of shortages.

The UN, the United States and the EU have condemned any interruption of the agreement on the grounds that it could trigger price rises and a world food crisis, accusing Vladimir Putin of blackmail. For his part, the master of the Kremlin maintains that Russia has been wronged and that none of his demands have been met.

communications war

Since the announcement of the expiration of this pact, accusations have been raised from all sides. The Russian Foreign Ministry has called on supporters of Ukraine to “fulfill their obligations” by “effectively removing Russian fertilizers and food products from sanctions.”

Western leaders, for their part, denounce the manipulation, pointing out that neither Russian agricultural products nor fertilizers are subject to punitive measures.

Another bone of contention is the fate of the Ukrainian grain. After a telephone conversation with his South African counterpart, Cyril Ramaphosa, one of his main partners in Africa, Vladimir Putin declared in a statement that “the main objective of the agreement is the delivery of grain to countries in need, particularly on the African continent.” , “has not been achieved”.

The UN affirms that 57% of exports have gone to developing countries, and that the initiative has delivered 725,000 tons of wheat to help the needy population of Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Sudan and Yemen.

Sanctions relief

Although Russia has declared that the agreement is “de facto finished”, it has declared itself ready to resume it “as soon as the part that concerns Russia is satisfied”, stressed the Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry Peskov.

“The two parties are unable to agree on the parameters of this pact,” explains Igor Delanoë, deputy director of the Franco-Russian Observatory. “For Russia, it is not just about maintaining the security of Ukrainian ports and the right to export grain. It considers that it must be inclusive, that is, it must be accompanied by an easing of sanctions to facilitate logistics, financial exchanges and insurance coverage of Russian international shipping. Because if it is true, as Westerners say, that cargo is not subject to sanctions, the entire Russian ecosystem is affected.”

These claims are not new. Already in May, Russia agreed to extend the agreement, but only for two months, attaching a series of demands aimed at facilitating its foreign trade. Among them was the reconnection of the main Russian agricultural bank, Rosselkhozbank, to the SWIFT international payment system.

A compromise had been proposed to Russia through a subsidiary of the Russian bank, US ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield said on Monday, lamenting that Moscow had “ignored” it.

For Anna Creti, an economist specializing in commodities, Russia’s withdrawal from the agreement is a way of pressing one of its last remaining levers against the West. “Europe has put in place draconian measures to reduce its dependence on Russian oil and gas. Moscow has lost control, and agriculture is now one of the only areas of foreign trade where you can hope to get something back.”

diplomatic weapon

By failing to get its demands accepted, Russia has slammed the door on an agreement it considers too favorable to Ukraine. “Russia does not depend on this maritime corridor, unlike Ukraine, for whom it is crucial,” says Igor Delanoë.

While Ukrainian grain production and exports have plummeted since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Russian grain industry has posted insolent growth, despite Western sanctions. Its grain exports hit a new record in 2023, estimated at 50-60 million tons, from its Black Sea ports, which continue to operate at full capacity. According to a report by the US government’s agricultural agency, exports to Africa have risen sharply this year.

“The grain sector is a dilemma for the Russian government,” analyzes Igor Delanoë. “From the internal point of view, it is not a very profitable market because it monopolizes land and labor, while sales prices are low. On the other hand, internationally it is a lever of power and influence against the West, but also against African countries”.

Although not surprising, given the aforementioned grievances, Russia’s withdrawal from the grain agreement is a cause for concern on the continent, at a time when countries such as Somalia, Kenya and Ethiopia are facing unprecedented droughts, with the consequent risk of famine.

This announcement is all the more sensitive as it comes at a time when the second Russia-Africa summit is scheduled to take place in Saint Petersburg on July 27 and 28. Food security is one of the main themes of this Forum, which is supposed to cement partnerships between Moscow and the continent.

For Anna Creti, the declaration of the Russian Presidency, a few days before the summit, that Ukrainian grain will not be sent to Africa is not accidental: “It is curious to see Russia do the accounting that suits it for European exports, when she itself no longer communicates anything about its exports. It is obviously an appeal to African countries before the meeting,” he analyzes.

On Tuesday, Dmitry Peskov assured that Moscow was ready to export its cereals free of charge to the African countries that need them most, specifying that this proposal would be discussed at the summit.

“Withdrawing from the agreement is not without risk for Putin, and could overshadow the meeting with African leaders,” says Igor Delanoë. “But the summit is an opportunity for the Russians to educate and play with the usual narrative of neocolonialism and Western monopolization of wealth. It’s a risk that Russia is taking, because it thinks it can handle it. The message to Africa is clear: we withdraw from the agreement, but we support you”.

*This article was adapted from its original in French