Romania will vote this Sunday, December 1, in legislative elections marked by political uncertainty and suspicions of Russian interference in the first round of last week’s presidential elections, held on November 24, with ultranationalist forces as possible major beneficiaries at the polls.
In these legislative elections on Sunday, the far-right of Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) They have a chance to win with a 22.4% of the votes, as the polls predict.
On the other hand, these legislative elections are marked by presidential elections that have been overshadowed by the unexpected victory, in the first round, of the ‘almost’ unknown ultra-pro-Russian Calin Georgescu. This candidate presented himself as an independent and achieved a surprising 23% of the votes, a result well above 6% that the surveys gave him.
All this has raised suspicions of possible electoral fraudcaused, allegedly, by Russian interference. Given this, the Constitutional Court has ordered a new count of the 9.4 million votes issued, triggering a political storm and strong criticism even from center-right pro-European parties.
In fact, this Monday, December 2, the Constitutional will decide whether to cancel the first round of the presidential elections of last November 24.
In case of suspension, Romanian citizens They must go to the polls again on December 15 for the first round of the presidential elections and on the 29th of the same month for the second round, as reported by the president of the Permanent Electoral Office in Radio Romania Actualității.
To guarantee security in the vote counting, the electoral authority has issued a circular requesting all offices involved to do not reveal preliminary results. The document emphasizes the need to maintain the confidentiality of data related to the counting of valid and invalid votes.
Romania: chaos and mistrust
Romania, until recently a bastion of stability in the Black Sea region and a key NATO ally in Western aid to Ukraineis immersed in an unprecedented situation of political chaos and distrust in institutions.
The country of 19 million inhabitants has been governed since 2021 by a grand coalition between social democrats (PSD) and center right (PNL), the two formations that have monopolized power in recent decades.
The ideological tensions within the coalition, especially among the bases of the PNL, a formation that for years had criticized corruption and social democratic nepotismtogether with inflation and persistent inequality, have fueled a protest vote that benefits the extreme right.
Thus, the situation of distrust in the institutions and uncertainty due to the new count drive new far-right political formations and personalities, who promise radical changes.
In fact, a recent poll suggests that the AUR party, led by George Simion, could win 22.4% of the votes in the legislative elections surpassing the Social Democratic Party (PSD) which is located in 21.4%.
The Save Romania Union (USR) would reach 17.5%, while the National Liberal Party would achieve 13.4%. The UDMR, which has traditionally supported the government, would enter Parliament with 5.5%.
Georgescu, without a political platform of his own, is supported by the Young People’s Party (POT), although polls indicate that this party would not reach the 5% threshold necessary to enter Parliament, as does Diana Şoșoacă’s radical party (SOS).
AUR, the possible winners
The far-right AUR, with Simion as leader, has sought to moderate its discourse in recent months, distancing itself from past anti-vaccine positions and presenting himself as a defender of sovereignty and traditional values. Its great political references are donald trump and Giorgia Meloni.
However, the party maintains an irredentist agenda advocating unification with Moldova –Simion is prohibited from entering to that country and Ukraine – and a marked skepticism towards the European Union. He has also promised to eliminate military aid to Ukraine if he comes to power.
The polls in Romania, despite everything, They are usually unreliablenone predicted Georgescu’s victory in the presidential elections and until recently they gave the PSD a comfortable victory in the presidential and legislative elections with up to 30% of support.
The mobilization of the nationalist vote may be helped by the fact that the vote coincides tomorrow, December 1, with Romanian National Dayin which a military parade is also planned in the center of Bucharest.
PSD and NLP: on a tightrope
The situation between the traditional parties is weak, both the PSD and the PNL have interim leadership after the resignation of its leaders for his failure in the presidential elections.
Given this situation, the beneficiary among the pro-European formations may be the Union Save Romania (USR), a centrist, nationalist party with certain populist overtones. The leader of the training, Elena Lasconicame in second position in the first presidential round with 19% of the votes.
“In addition to AUR also the USR, Lasconi’s party, could gain more support among PNL voters. This means that, anti-system partiesboth AUR and USR, regardless of their political orientation, could take advantage of the situation,” he explains to Efe the political scientist Cristian Pirvulescu.
The elections will be held with special surveillance by the security forces, which they already detected last week cyber attacks during the presidential elections.
He Supreme Defense Council (CSAT), although it did not specify the specific origin of these attacks, noted: “Romania, together with other States on the eastern flank of NATO, has become a priority for hostile actions by some state and non-state actors, in particular the Russian Federation”.
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