Climate change will reduce the average income of people around the world by a fifth by 2050, according to a new report published in the journal Nature by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.
As many parts of the world experience extreme weather conditions, the global impacts of a changing climate will cost $38 trillion a year by mid-century, the report warns – a reduction in global average income of around 19%.
Losses are already assured, regardless of future emissions options, the report says.
Maximilian Kotz, co-author of the report, told the Voice of America that there is little the world can do to mitigate the impact.
“What we found is that over the next 25 to 30 years, the impacts on the economy are consistent across different emissions scenarios, regardless of whether we enter a high- or low-emissions world,” he said.
Climate change, and especially rising temperatures, have been shown to affect worker productivity, Kotz said.
“That will manifest itself in numerous different industries; although those impacts are particularly strong, when workers are outdoors, in contexts such as manufacturing sectors,” he said. “And then, we also know that the impacts on agricultural productivity are very strong, especially high temperatures.”
The research analyzed climate and economic data from the last 40 years from more than 1,600 regions around the world and used it to assess future impacts. Those least responsible for global emissions will likely be the most affected.
“Compromised losses are projected for all regions except those at very high latitudes, where reductions in temperature variability bring benefits. The greatest losses are committed in lower latitudes, in regions with lower accumulated historical emissions and lower current incomes,” the report says.
The authors conclude that addressing climate change would be much cheaper than bearing the economic damage and estimate that the cost of reducing greenhouse gas emissions would be only one-sixth of the $38 trillion impact of climate change by 2050.
The research is likely to underestimate the full economic impact of climate change.
These estimates do not consider important channels such as the impacts of heat waves, sea level rise, tropical cyclones and tipping points, as well as non-market damages, such as those affecting ecosystems. and human health,” says the report.
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