Relief in Brussels over Le Pen’s defeat despite risk of instability in France

When they had already resigned themselves to a chaotic cohabitation between Emmanuel Macron and the ultra Jordan BardellaEuropean leaders have welcomed with contained euphoria the surprise result of the second round of the legislative elections in France. The EU once again saves another match point with the defeat of the National Rally of France. Marine Le Pena radical right-wing Eurosceptic party whose ultimate goal is to dismantle the Union from within.

The biggest risk now is a long period of deadlock in Paris due to the difficulties in forming a government, which could have repercussions on the EU due to the paralysis of the Franco-German engine. But for Brussels the important thing is that, in any scenario, Macron retains leadership of France’s foreign and European policyas well as the role of head of the armed forces, a role that Le Pen intended to call into question in the event of an absolute majority victory.

[Vuelco en Francia en la segunda vuelta: el Frente Popular y Macron superan a Le Pen]

A victory for the far right would have brought France into a head-on clash with the European Union on a number of policies. A government of the National Rally in Paris could have formed an alliance in the EU with other far-right governments such as those of Italy, the Netherlands or Hungary to form a blocking minority.

Perhaps what has caused most concern in Brussels is Bardella’s position on Ukraine. National Regrouping has traditionally been close to Vladimir Putin and even received a loan from Russia. Although Le Pen has tried to distance herself from the Kremlin since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, her change of course has not convinced the EU.

In fact, Putin’s government expressed its support for the French far right during the campaign. That is why Tusk speaks of “disappointment” in Moscow and “relief” in kyiv. Bardella was opposed to Ukraine’s entry into the EU and had marked the sending of the French far right as a red line. from French instructors to kyiv to train Ukrainian soldiers, as Macron has suggested.

“Tonight, my French socialist friends and comrades demonstrate that It is possible to stop the extreme right by uniting the left. The results are clear: by placing the New Popular Front in the lead in seats in the National Assembly, the French people have mobilised to defend the Republic from the dangers that threatened it. A historic moment, for France and for Europe,” said the leader of the socialist group in the European Parliament, Iratxe Garcia.

Its failure in France extremely weakens the National Grouping in the reconfiguration of the political groups in the European Parliament. In the previous legislature, Le Pen was the undisputed leader of the Identity and Democracy group, which also included Alternative for Germany, the League of Nations and the European Parliament. Matteo SalviniGeert Wilders’ PVV or the Flemish flag Flemish.

Just before the election, Le Pen herself expelled Alternative for Germany because she considered its members too radical. In recent days, Identity and Democracy has disintegrated in slow motion when the rest of the partners defected to join the new ultra group founded by the Hungarian Prime Minister, Viktor Orbánwhich is called Patriots for Europe.

Everything indicates that Le Pen will now have no choice but to join Orbán’s groupwhose constitution could be finalized this Monday. “In the European Parliament, our MEPs will play their full role from tomorrow within a large group that will weigh in on the balance of power in Europe to reject migratory submersion, punitive ecology and the confiscation of our sovereignty,” announced Bardella in his defeat speech.

In the end, Radical right forces have been unable to create a large supergroup The only one in the European Parliament, a failure that Orbán himself attributes to the rivalry between Le Pen and Meloni. The Italian prime minister will continue to lead the European Conservatives and Reformists, although she has lost Vox, one of its most prominent members, who has abandoned Meloni and left with Orbán and Le Pen.