RED LANTERNS Ko Wen-je, the midpoint to unravel Taiwan’s bipolarity

With little more than six months to go before the voting, the presidential race remains uncertain. Democratic leader William Lai leads the way. Former Taipei mayor Ko Wen-je is vying for second place with the Kuomintang representative. The future of the island is at stake, between fears of war with China and “subservience” to the United States. The weight of the youth vote and its tacit demands.

Milan () – The presidential elections scheduled for January next year in Taiwan will be a crucial crossroads for its 23.5 million inhabitants and for the very future of the “rebel” island, both in relations with China and on the scene international. The polls will determine the political course of the future Taipei government and the framework of alliances for the next four years in an economically, commercially and militarily strategic area of ​​the world, which is already a battlefield between Beijing and the United States in a context of deep strain. In fact, on the one hand there is the support of Washington, which opposes the ramifications of China and its growing pressure – diplomatic and arms – on the island. These contrasts are also reflected among the main candidates: the representative of the Kuomintang (KMT) and leader of the opposition, Hou Yu-ih, presents himself as the guarantor of relations with the Dragon and a factor of peace; on the opposite front, the outgoing vice president and candidate of the Progressive Democratic Party, William Lai, promoter of the hard line and the fight for freedom and democracy against imperialism -and autocracy- of China. However, the one who could mix the cards is the third in contention, the former mayor of Taipei and member of the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP, which he himself founded in 2019) Ko Wen-je: a candidate who had not emerged until a few weeks ago and that it could act as a needle of the scale in the tussle between China and the US.

A bridge between Beijing and Taipei

The last to have announced his candidacy, the man who until 2022 had been the first citizen of the capital, has been in the electoral game for a month and already seems to have gained a good portion of popularity among his fellow citizens. Although his party can only count on a handful of deputies, Ko Wen-je continues to rise, as the latest polls show, which place him close to the Kuomintang candidate, but still below the vice-president and favorite at the polls, Lai Ching. -te, better known as William Lai. When he served as mayor of Taipei, he repeatedly tried to engage Beijing without sparing criticism, as happened last year when he lashed out at Chinese military pressure during a virtual meeting with Shanghai officials. A position of balance that he reiterated in recent days before Reuterswhen, when asked about a possible meeting with Xi Jinping, he replied that it was not necessary “just because”, but that it should be included in a “clear” framework of “objectives” on which such talks were based.

Interviewed during a business trip to Tokyo, the People’s Party candidate, who has years of surgical experience behind him, said he had no problem with cultural exchanges with China and fruitful economic cooperation was possible. . “In the political realm, right now,” he added, “there are different political systems and different lifestyles.” Returning to the subject of the meeting with the Chinese leader, the response was blunt: “What would be the objective, what would be the advantage for Taiwan?” Ko Wen-je wondered.

Ma Ying-jeou of the Kuomintang is the only Taiwanese president to have met his Beijing counterpart: a face-to-face meeting dating back to late 2015, in Singapore. China subsequently rejected multiple requests for dialogue with the current leader, Tsai Ing-wen, calling her a separatist because of her opposition to her motherland. “So we shouldn’t meet [con Xi] because yes,” added the former mayor of Taipei, who prefers a “pragmatic approach: what are the central issues of the talks and what is their purpose?” And, with a joke, he ended by confirming his attempt to also maintain a relationship balanced with Washington, avoiding an attitude of subservience: “we buy the weapons we need from the United States,” he concluded, but certainly not “what the Americans tell us to buy.”

Radicalism, moderation and rupture

Three mayors (or former mayors) with different profiles are therefore vying for the presidential post, and the winner, who will succeed the current leader, Tsai ing-wen, will have to guide the island through a delicate and uncertain phase. Lai, 63, has long been close to the “green” and more radical wing of the party, the one that calls the most for independence, and for many his victory could exacerbate tensions. In the past, he described himself as a “pragmatic worker for the independence” of Taiwan, but today he seems to have corrected his position by stressing that the island is already a sovereign nation and does not need to declare any independence, working only to maintain the status quo. However, he remains disliked by Beijing, which has accused him of “playing with fire” by working with words and deeds for independence. By contrast, the Kuomintang candidate is seen as more moderate, a sign that the party wants to maintain its electoral base and try to attract the vote of the middle class. However, Hou You-yi, 65, a former police officer, is seen as “inexperienced” in foreign policy and unable to handle cross-straits negotiations and power relations. He has voiced his opposition to both Taiwan’s claims for independence and Beijing’s “one nation, two systems” prospect of reunification. Words that, for many analysts, are an implicit reference to the attempt to maintain the status quowhich seems to be the most widespread and desired position among the citizens of the island.

The one who could mix the cards between the two camps is the popular candidate Ko Wen-je, capable of attracting the moderate vote. The latest polls give 35.7% preference to Lai, 25.9% to the exponent of the KMT and 24.9% to the third party, but many things could change in the months leading up to the vote. Especially for the 63-year-old former doctor who launched into politics, founder of the TPP in 2019 and now dubbed the “white force” for having broken the traditional bipartisan vision of Taiwan by creating a “third pole” that today is a reality that “cannot be ignored”. Among other things, because he seems to be the most popular among young people and is already in a position to challenge the Kuomintang representative for second place, with prospects of continuing to rise in the popularity index. Analysts and experts underline his policy of appealing to the youthful electorate, whose “impotence” he denounces in the face of big problems: inflation, stagnant wages, the cost of housing and living in general, and unresolved internal issues. His approach represents an “emotional escape valve” for the complaints and discontent of youth, although the problem of translating his (theoretical) approval into votes (at the polls) in the electoral game still exists. In April, during a three-week visit to the United States, he discussed relations with China, saying that Taiwan must be prepared for war by increasing its military capabilities to deter it, while trying to “reduce” enmity with Beijing with “good will.” . In an interview with Nikkei AsiaKo stated that the “status quo” of Taiwan on a de facto but not official independence is the only “realistic option” at the moment. And he did not spare criticism of the Democrats for their “belligerent” attitude and the Kuomintang for its (according to him) excessive “deference” to Beijing In short, the intermediary that could unravel Taiwan’s bipolarism and mediate with China by flexing its muscles.

“RED LANTERNS” IS THE NEWSLETTER OF ASIAN NEWS DEDICATED TO CHINA.

WOULD YOU LIKE TO RECEIVE IT EVERY THURSDAY IN YOUR EMAIL? SUBSCRIBE TO THE NEWSLETTER AT THIS LINK.