The war in Ukraine has entered a new phase. Formally proclaiming the illegal accession of four occupied Ukrainian provinces, Russian President Vladimir Putin has ruled out peace once again.
In his speech, as triumphant and aggressive as it was predictable, the Russian leader said he was willing to negotiate, but on his terms. That includes not debating the sovereignty of the annexed areas that he, he assured him, “they will be russian forever” even if it has to use its nuclear arsenal to do so.
Faced with this movement, which undermines the rules of the international order and which some see as a desperate measure with which Putin is trying to hide his defeats on the battlefield, the West has not hesitated to respond. And it is that both the EU and NATO have “condemned” Y “refused” annexation. But that, however, seems not to be enough.
[Putin culmina su chantaje: “Kiev tiene que respetar las anexiones como único camino a la paz”]
A few hours after Putin’s speech, while he was taking a mass bath in Moscow’s Red Square, the Ukrainian president, Volodímir Zelensky, announced from kyiv that he was going to request the entry of his country to the Atlantic Alliance “by express way“. A request that puts the organization in a delicate position and that opens the door to three plausible scenarios about the future of the war.
Concert marking Russia’s annexation of four Ukrainian territories held in Moscow
Scenario II: NATO stands out
The first of these would suggest a complete withdrawal from NATO in the face of the escalation of the conflict. That would mean ignoring kyiv’s request to join and stop supporting the country to avoid a direct confrontation with Russia.
The new Russian borders are not recognized internationally, but allow the Kremlin to consider any attack within them as an attack on his nation. Thus, if Ukraine bombs any region during its counter-offensive and does so with the weapons that the West has been administering to it since the beginning of the war, Russia could respond, not only against kyiv, but against the Western allies.
This panorama, however, is far from the position that the member countries of the Alliance have recently marked. The United States, for example, which is in the midst of a technical recession, announced on Thursday that it would send Ukraine a new aid package of $12.3 billion for military and economic assistance.
Without figures but forcefully, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg also assured on Friday that they remain “committed to Ukraine” and that “will continue to offer their support“. Likewise, the Norwegian added that, “if Russia stops fighting there will be peace”, but that “if Ukraine stops fighting, it will cease to exist”.
NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg holds a press conference in Brussels.
In this sense, if Western countries stop sending weapons – such as the 12 HIMARS Americans who are behind the success of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkov-kyiv would predictably lose the fight, however weakened Let there be Putin’s army.
Thus, in the immediate future, it does not appear that the West is going to abandon Ukraine. Nor does it stop punish economically, diplomatically and personally Russia to stop funding its war machine. Not even before the horizon of the “harsh winter” presented by the current energy crisis.
Scenario II: Business as usual
That everything remains the same is perhaps the most realistic scenario. In other words, both the Club of 27 and the United States keep delivering war material to the former Soviet republic, without having to urgently agree to join NATO.
That is precisely what Stoltenberg has done, who has coldly welcomed the Ukrainian president’s request, leaving the door open for a future incorporation. “Any democracy has the right to apply for NATO membership, and we respect Ukraine’s right to do so. The doors of NATO are still open and we have shown it,” said the organization’s secretary general.
[La OTAN enfría la solicitud de entrada de Ucrania: “Nuestra prioridad es dar apoyo inmediato a Kiev”]
He then recalled that “the decision must be made by the 30 allies by consensus” and that the priority “is now to give immediate support to Ukraine to help it defend itself from the invasion.”
In this context, the Ukrainian forces they could keep going as until now with its reconquest, which this Friday has led them to surround the region of Lima, in the pro-Russian Donetsk Oblast. Now, if that happens, we would have to wait for a reaction from Putin, who has already threatened to use tactical nuclear weapons.
White House national security adviser Sullivan addresses the daily briefing at the White House in Washington.
What would the West do then? To date, the White House national security adviser, Jake SullivanHe has limited himself to warning that any atomic attack would have catastrophic consequences for Moscow, since the US and its allies will respond “decisively“.
His words could imply that he would respond proportionally. That is, use the technique of “eye for an eye“and respond with an atomic attack with another atomic attack.
[Al menos 25 civiles muertos en un ataque ruso contra un convoy humanitario en Zaporiyia]
However, that would imply that Washington put aside its national interests and enter a nuclear war to defend a third State. In this line, the American general David Petraeus, former director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), rules out a nuclear response. Among other things because it would imply bypassing the main nuclear deterrent treaties.
“NATO would probably respond by conventionally destroying the Russian fleet in the Black Sea and applying even more sanctions,” Petraeus said in an interview with the German channel. D.W.. Likewise, it ensures that the use of this weaponry “would not change the situation of Russia on the battlefield“. And with “situation” he refers to the “lack of leadership, weapons and morale” that does not seem to be compensated in the medium term with the mobilization of reservists.
Scenario III: Total War
The third and last possible scenario would be the one in which NATO listens to Zelensky’s request, the partners unanimously agree to invite Ukraine and, after confirming that it meets all the requirements, establish a protocol ratified by all Parties so that becomes the 31st member of the Alliance. All of this, of course, would have to be done by way of urgency, and not by the usual procedure that can take months and even years.
Throughout this process, the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdoganwould have to give his approval at least twice, which would force him to distance himself even more from his ally, Vladimir Putin.
Upon completion of accession, Ukraine would have to activate the Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty on collective defense. This mechanism forces all allies to respond to any armed attack. Which, broadly speaking, would mean that Russia and at least 30 countries led by the US would start a world war.
