Putin would mobilize 500,000 soldiers

“I think it has started.” This is what Volodimir said Zelensky Monday, but What was the Ukrainian president referring to? With the arrival of February, the war not only enters a new month, but also a new phase: the 24th will be the first anniversary of the war. This data, accompanied by the intense and increasing mobilization of Russian troops, makes Ukraine fear that the great Russian offensive is about to arrive.

“We believe that since Russia lives on symbolismthey will try to try something around February 24″, has warned the Minister of Defense Oleksii Reznikov. This has not caught anyone by surprise: silence has not been heard in the region of the Donetskeast of Ukraine, center of Donbas.

Since a month ago, when the Kremlin put General Valery Gerasimov at the head of military operations in Ukraine, Russia has done nothing more than join forces in Donbas. First they captured Soledar and, since then, the siege on Bakhmut (an important logistics, transport and water supply center for Donetsk) continues to tighten with shelling and daily fights.

“We see that Putin is preparing for more warwhatEU they are mobilizing more soldiers, more than 200,000; potentially even more than that,” she said this week. Jens Stoltenberg, NATO Secretary General. A mobilization of troops and artillery like it had not been seen since September.

However, Reznikov thinks that the mobilization will continue to increase until it reaches a much higher number, half a million soldierswith a view to perpetrating a brutal offensive coinciding with February 24.

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In this way Putin, so given to parades and commemorations, could present a great victory in Moscow with hype and cymbal, in the image and likeness of the triumphal marches of the Roman emperors. That great victory would be the capture of Donbasa region bordering Russia that Putin identified a year ago as a priority target to seize power.

“Let’s not underestimate our enemy. Officially, they announced 300,000but when we see the troops at the borders, according to our assessments, there are many more,” Reznikov told the French press during the meeting he has held these days in Paris with his French counterpart. And he gave a figure: 500,000 Russian soldiers.

waiting for planes

Reznikov’s visit to the French government had a clear objective: to increase the pressure on the West to obtain green light to send fighter jets to the front. Until now, both the United Kingdom and France, like the United States, have been against this happening: “It does not seem to us a solid decision for now,” he said on Wednesday. Ben WallaceBritish Defense Minister.

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It has not yet been verified whether Reznikov’s forecast is correct or whether it is an exaggeration to speed up the procedures and get new weapons, since the first battle tanks are already being sent to Ukraine. However, the Ukrainian authorities they have been preparing for weeks for this great offensive coincident with February 24.

Last week Oleksi Danilov, secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, also warned that Russia was preparing a barrage to commemorate the anniversary of the invasion.

For his part, the governor of Luhansk Serhiy Haidai said that the Russians they are cutting off Ukrainian communications in the areaso that they cannot establish a clear count of the Russian troop surge: “There is an active transfer of troops to the region and definitely they are preparing for something big on the Eastern Front in February”.

A catastrophic vision, alert to some next key days in the future of the warto which the Ukrainian president added: “A definite increase in the offensive operations of the occupiers on the eastern front of our country has been noted. The situation has become more difficult“, Zelenski has reported in his daily part.

“We tell our partners that we too must be ready as soon as possible,” Reznikov told French media. “That is why We need weapons to contain the enemy.”

Bakhmut in critical condition

Bakhmut has passed from having 70,000 inhabitants to 6,500: the few who refuse to leave the city despite warnings from the authorities to leave it. Triage hospitals, where constant bursts of ambulance sirens are heard, concentrate all signs of life and community. Hospitals and gas stations, where soldiers gather to humanize their hands with hot coffee while they await the arrival of a new bombardment.

With the taking of Bakhmut, Russia would be in a position to launch this great offensive preparing for the end of the month. Not surprisingly, the analyst at Rochan Consulting Konrad Muzyka explained that Russian artillery bombardments have increased considerably: from 60 a day, which was averaged at the end of December, to 90 per day that took place last week.

Other experts agree with Muzyka that all this responds to the fact that Russia will likely launch a new major offensive before March. However, Muzyka believes that Russia could have trouble equipping large numbers of soldiers with tanks and armored vehicles.

In any case, both contenders have been preparing for this moment of high intensity ground combat: Russia, pushing to control all of Donbas; Ukraine, defending positions while waiting for reinforcements to arrive from kyiv and weapons from the West with which to begin the counteroffensive and expel the invader. “The main battles are yet to come“, warned Oleksi Danilov.