Last Saturday, Vladimir Putin put in his mouth the threats that had been repeated for months in different related television programs. On the occasion of a meeting with his Belarusian counterpart, Alexander Lukashenko, To agree on the deployment of medium and long-range missile launchers on the Belarusian border with Poland, Putin stated: “Our missiles could turn Europe into ashes in a few hours” without even flinching, and then added: “But, for now, there’s no need”.
The truth is that it is shocking to hear the leader of a nuclear superpower use those terms, knowing that he is probably right… even if he omits a decisive part: since 1945, several heads of state have been tempted to turn the enemy to ashes, be it the USA, the Soviet Union, West Berlin, India, Pakistan or South Korea. If, in all this time, no one has taken the step, it is because they know that in those same few hours their own country would be reduced to the same ashes.
In fact, Putin’s words were met with derision at the NATO meeting, with those comments from Trudeau and Johnson about whether they should start riding a horse bare-chested. Things got personal and the message was clear: you’re not going to intimidate us with your KGB tricks.
[El nuevo fracaso de Rusia en el mar Negro vuelve a poner en duda la capacidad de su Armada]
Now, when Putin speaks, he does not only do so for his enemies, but also has his own audience to satisfy. for a lot propaganda Whatever you want to repeat in the related media, everyone in Russia knows that more than four months have passed since the start of the “special military operation” and that the eastern border has barely moved a few dozen kilometers.
Without a doubt, this failure is what is behind the verbal escalation: not only the explicit nuclear threat but also the complaints about Lithuania’s alleged blockade of Kaliningrad or the irony regarding the integration process of Sweden and Finland in NATO. Asked about this, Putin replied with his usual sly half smile: “If you want to join, go ahead, all yours, but if we see any change in your military policy, you can be sure that we will react proportionally to your threat.” Sweden and Finland ended up signing as well.
From the Sudetenland to Austria, from 1938 to 2022
Putin has spent at least since the beginning of the year mismeasuring his movements and giving himself a dissuasive capacity that in fact he does not have. He pressured Ukraine for months before invading itthreatened the Western community and became convinced that the nuclear factor would be enough to make the world side with his wishes.
Exactly the opposite has happened: Ukraine has defended itself tooth and nail, the United States and the NATO they have delivered enough weapons to prolong that resistance and the European Union, even with clear internal dissensions, has maintained an image of political and economic union abroad. It seems clear that rhetoric by itself does not work.
Vladimir Putin rides a horse during his vacation.
Russia is losing the war in Ukraine because the war was about conquering the country or at least changing its regime and place a like-minded leader. Neither of these things will be achieved and to sell each Lisichansk or each Sievierodonetsk as a success similar to the defense of Stalingrad is to abuse the patience of one’s own and others.
In fact, one wonders if there will not be some kind of internal response from the army itself towards a political leader who is not only exposing all his shortcomings in an absurd conflict, but has also sent 25,000 young Russians to death (for now) and has left the conventional weapons capacity of its army shivering. For this reason, Putin has decided this weekend to take a step further, in something that begins to resemble despair.
If the invasion of the Ukraine took us back to 1938 and the Sudetenland, his last statements remind us of the “Anschluss” with Austria that same year. According to the Russian president, Western sanctions and pressure on his country and its neighbor Belarus, can “accelerate” the process of unification of both states into one. Basically, the entry of the country controlled by Lukashenko since 1994 into the Russian Federationperhaps with a special status.
Disagreements about the war
In these last statements, the use of the term “accelerate” is surprising. In practice, Russia and Belarus are the same country in many aspects.
They are two autocracies that defend and protect each other and that treat the opposition with the same brutality. Lukashenko has not hesitated to always offering himself as Putin’s lackey… except curiously in this invasion of the Ukraine, where he has let the Russians use his territory to train and attack kyiv (the very assholes could not think of anything else than to cross Chernobyl to go in a straight line)… but he has not put his own army at work.
Nobody escapes the fact that Putin would benefit from Belarus officially declaring war on Zelensky and forced him to open a new front on the northern border, relatively pacified since mid-April. Either he has not asked Lukashenko – which is highly unlikely – or he has made some convincing excuse to step aside at a key moment for his closest ally.
The President of Belarus together with the President of Russia.
There are times when, rereading Putin’s words, it is not clear whether the threat is to the West or to the nation itself. Belarus. In any case, it has been seven very intense days verbally and war-wise: Russia managed to close the siege on Lisichansk and take over the city.
The Lugansk region already belongs to him completely. In return, Ukraine has made slight progress in Khersonhas expelled Russian troops from Snake Island and the use of US HIMARS is facilitating the destruction of weapons in arsenals hitherto beyond their reach.
All this proves one thing: in the microphones, we all know how to win wars. On the ground, it’s another story. A story of death, horror and lost generations.
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