Theater and good. This is how the excuses of last Sunday on the part of Eugeni Prigozhin, leader of the Wagner Group, to justify the continuity of his private army in Bakhmut when he had already announced his departure for May 10. Everything about this power farce is murky and, in Russian terms, unnecessary. Both the videos of Prigozhin sending to hell Sergei Shoigu and Valeri Gerasimov, defense minister and head of the armed forces respectively, like those of Ramzan Kadyrov saying that his Chechens would take over, and all the subsequent “where I said I say…”.
We already said on Saturday that it was highly unlikely that Putin would let his old friend Prigozhin leave Bakhmut half-conquered. Now, the former chef from St. Petersburg now has to deal with the fact of having faced, and in those terms, the Kremlin, a tactic that usually ends with the critic falling out of a window or with an exploding doll in his hands. What has been said does not admit of discussion or interpretation. There was no action in the videos of last Thursday and Friday, but anger and impotence. In forty-eight hours, it seems, they have promised him “all the weapons you need“. He knows it’s a lie, of course. Neither Shoigu nor Gerasimov are going to swallow that toad. But he has to stay.
Why doesn’t he have another? Why can’t she go back to Africa, as new recruits are encouraged according to Radio Svodoba’s investigation? Because the alternative would be to spend regular troops that Gerasimov has prepared to stop possible Ukrainian advances in other parts of the Donbas and at the birth of dniepernext to the Energodar nuclear power plant, one of the key points of the war in the coming months, much more than Bakhmut or any other area on the eastern front.
Akhmat Kadyrov’s special forces, in the city of Bakhmut
The other alternative that was considered, that of Kadirov, was a joke, without more. Obviously, the Chechens have no ability to even come close to the performance or preparation of the elite mercenaries of the Wagner Group. They can be as cruel as them or more, but They do not stand out for their organization nor for his excessive bravery. In fact, they have not appeared in Ukraine for almost a year, separated by their insubordination and their little contribution since the capture of Azovstal.
Bakhmut resists
Putin’s problem, then, is that he doesn’t have an army: he has at least three. We don’t count the fledgling private militias from companies like Gazprom because of his little experience and his even less importance in war. Bringing together three such diverse organizations under a single command is complex and gives rise to insurrections like the one we saw last weekend. All the time and energy that Russia spends organizing its own forces will be in Ukraine’s favor.
[La OTAN puso en alerta a dos aviones españoles tras bloquear un jet ruso a uno polaco en el mar Negro]
For example, it seems quite clear that the indecisionsthe jealousy and the fights Internal conflicts have had a lot to do with Russia breaking one by one all the ultimatums that Putin had set for the conquest of Bakhmut. First there was talk of the anniversary of the start of the “special military operation” (February 24), after the end of spring and, finally, of Victory Day, this Tuesday, May 9, the 78th anniversary of the surrender of Nazi Germany against the Soviet Army.
Putin has run out of his parade or his offering or whatever he wanted to do on the smoking ruins of Bakhmut. In return, he will be able to offer for a few hours an image of unity and reconciliation between his own forces, which we do not expect to last long. To offset the tokenism of the Russian army flexing muscle at Bakhmut, Gerasimov and Prigozhin have managed to agree on something: It’s been a day of excruciating bombing and front-line advances.
127 targets
The attacks on Kiev and Odessa at dawn from Sunday the 7th to Monday the 8th were followed throughout the day by intense bombardments on the north of Kherson and notable advances towards the Bakhmut post office, northwest of the city. missile launches over kyiv did not cause great damage being stopped for the most part by anti-aircraft defense systems. On the other hand, in Odesa, Russia completely destroyed a Red Cross warehouse, as confirmed by the organization itself.
In north Kherson, on the other side of the coveted Dnieper riverbed, Ukraine reports attacks on the town of Stanislav, which reportedly injured six. In total, we would talk about a minimum of 127 targets in ten different regions, with three civilians killed and twenty-eight injured, as confirmed by the newspaper The kyiv Independent citing sources from the Ukrainian defense ministry.
Last night, 35 of 35 Russian drones were shot down!
30 of them targeted Kyiv.
On this Day of Remembrance & Victory over Nazism in WWII, today’s Nazis – ruscists – are destroying peaceful cities. The empire of which they dream will fade into darkness. Just like its predecessors. pic.twitter.com/easqvc8W17— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 8, 2023
As for Bakhmut, Wagner also attacked at night and did it again by day. His advances forced new controlled blasting and ordered withdrawals. Even so, Ukrainian troops still control around 10 percent of the city… and it is that 10% that is getting on the Russians’ nerves. Furthermore, however much they manage to control the few buildings still standing, it will be of little use as long as Ukraine maintains its superiority in Khromove and Ivanivske and can manage the T0504 road and its continuation to Chasiv Yar.
Preying on civilians it seems the only way that Putin and his circumstantial allies find to send a message of strength. For the rest, both in the south and in the east, everything seems to trust the alleged lack of ammunition and men in Ukraine – there is not a day that the US press does not insist on this and the source, inevitably, must be the Pentagon- and the mined trenches that have been built during these months. Now, none of that will work if there is no unity of command. An army without motivation and without clear things is doomed to failure.
