On Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian high command announced on its social networks the launch of American-made ATACMS missiles against a weapons depot in the Bryansk region. This is the first attack on Russian soil with foreign weapons by the general’s army Oleksandr Syrskyi and it arrives a few hours after the president Joe Biden gave its permission to use medium and long-range missiles against Russian and North Korean military targets.
This permit had been requested almost since the beginning of the war, when the HIMARS arrived in Ukraine, but the Democratic administration had always refused to facilitate it. The last time, at the end of September, after a long meeting between Biden and Zelensky at the White House. It is not clear what has changed since then beyond the fact that the vice president Kamala Harris lost the election against donald trump on November 5th. It is impossible to discern whether it is a last gesture of collaboration with Ukraine or a message to the incoming administration to make it clear who is in charge until January 20.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky preferred not to comment on the matter at the press conference he held in kyiv with the Prime Minister of Denmark, Mette Fredrikssen. “Ukraine has long-range weapons: drones made by ourselves, Neptune missiles and, now, ATACMS missiles… We plan to use them all.” He thus responded to the Kremlin’s threats in recent hours, which warned that the use of NATO weapons against Russian territory would be considered an act of war by the Alliance itself, regardless of the country that launched them.
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Change in Russian nuclear doctrine
The Russian reaction was not long in coming: spokesman Dmitri Peskov appeared before the press on Tuesday morning to downplay the consequences of the attack, ensuring that five of the six missiles had been shot down and the sixth had been seriously damaged. Even so, he also announced that the president Vladimir Putin had signed the announced change in nuclear doctrine by which Russia reserves the right to respond with nuclear weapons to any attack with conventional weapons on its territory by a country allied to a nuclear power.
The change seems designed exclusively for the current situation and puts back on the table a threat that has been repeated almost since the first day of the invasion. Russia has always wanted to make it clear that it is a nuclear power and that alone deserves to be treated with respect. In addition, knows that there is no more powerful weapon to influence Western public opinions than resorting to the scarecrow of the apocalypse. Of course, for now, all the red lines it has drawn have been crossed: from the attacks on Crimea to the delivery of certain weapons (anti-aircraft defenses, long-distance missiles, F16 fighters…).
According to the prestigious journalist Bob Woodward in his latest book, WarRussia seriously considered using tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine after the humiliating defeats in late summer 2022 in Kharkiv and Kherson. The American reaction was immediate, warning of a massive attack with conventional weapons in response. At that time, China sided with the United States and Russia considered that the situation was not sufficiently desperate as its doctrine then demanded.
President Joe Biden went so far as to personally call Vladimir Putin in response to the efforts of the entire Kremlin entourage to deny the information that the Pentagon possessed. After an intense exchange of views, Putin ended up threatening the United States with a nuclear war, to which the Democratic president replied that a nuclear war cannot be won, making it absurd to start one. The Chinese president Xi Jinping has maintained the same position on the matter at all times, a position agreed upon for almost 80 years after the horrors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
Sin noticias de Donald Trump
Pese a que la situación en el frente es mejor ahora para Rusia que en 2022, las amenazas vuelven porque funcionan. El ejército ruso lleva año y medio de ofensiva en el Donbás y aunque su avance es lento, al menos es continuo. En su contra juega el enorme precio que está pagando en vidas y armas, lo que le ha obligado precisamente a recurrir al apoyo de Kim Jong-Un para liberar la región de Kursk, parte de la cual está desde hace meses bajo control de fuerzas ucranianas.
Aunque el pánico es libre y comprensible, nada hace apuntar a que Putin vaya a cumplir sus amenazas. De entrada, sería un suicidio, pues supondría una escalada que probablemente acabara con el planeta tal y como lo conocemos, Rusia incluida. No tendría ningún sentido intentar justo ahora algún tipo de locura cuando la guerra parece haberse puesto a su favor y quedan dos meses para la llegada a la Casa Blanca de uno de sus máximos defensores. De hecho, si el siempre temeroso Biden y sus asesores Harris, Sullivan y Blinken, han tomado por fin esta decisión probablemente sea porque están convencidos de que no tendrá consecuencias.
Más probable es que aumenten las operaciones de sabotaje y guerra híbrida en los países europeos aliados de Ucrania. Por ejemplo, este martes se conoció que los cables submarinos que dotan de conexión a internet a Lituania y Suecia habían sido dañados. Todo apunta a una maniobra dirigida desde Moscú, que puede repetirse con cierta frecuencia, con el apoyo o sin él de sus aliados chinos e iraníes.
El que aún no se ha pronunciado oficialmente al respecto de la tensa situación es el presidente electo Donald Trump, quien anda estos días configurando su equipo de gobierno y paseándose con Elon Musk por el país. Mucho antes de empezar la campaña, ya prometió que podía acabar la guerra en veinticuatro horas y obligar a ambas partes a llegar a un acuerdo justo. Lo cierto es que, desde que ganara las elecciones, apenas ha hablado de política exterior y sus nombramientos parecen más destinados a gestionar la crisis en Oriente Próximo que en Ucrania. Más allá de la llamada protocolaria a Zelenski, compartida también con Musk, su equipo no ha querido adelantar qué movimientos tiene pensados para conseguir una paz que, tal y como la plantea, más parece una rendición que otra cosa.
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