Putin invites Xi Jinping to Moscow

Virtual meeting between the two leaders. The Russians face repeated setbacks in the war against the Ukraine; Beijing under pressure for its mismanagement of the pandemic. The will to strengthen bilateral cooperation is affirmed. Xi is unlikely to agree to go to Russia if Putin continues to suffer defeats on Ukrainian soil.

Beijing () – Vladimir Putin today invited Xi Jinping to Moscow for a state trip in the spring. It was in his opening speech for the virtual meeting with the Chinese president, noting that the visit would demonstrate to the world the “closeness” between Russia and China.

Beijing has not directly condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and in some forums, such as the United Nations, has provided minimal political cover for Putin’s aggressive war. Taking advantage of Western sanctions against the Kremlin, the Chinese have obtained vast amounts of gas and oil from Russia at low prices, helping to prevent the Russian economy from collapsing completely.

However, Xi was careful not to help Moscow to the point of incurring secondary sanctions from the US and its allies. Today Putin again asked his Chinese counterpart to strengthen military cooperation between the two partners. Despite the announcement of “unlimited friendship” between Russia and China on the eve of the Russian attack on kyiv, there is so far no evidence that Beijing has provided military support to the Russians.

Following Putin’s speech on Monday, Xi responded that his country is willing to deepen strategic partnership with Russia while the whole world is experiencing “a difficult situation.” However, the Chinese supreme leader has just as serious problems as the Russian “tsar”; China is grappling with an upsurge in the Covid-19 pandemic, which regained steam in early December after rare mass protests by the Chinese favored the withdrawal of Xi’s draconian “zero covid” policy.

Already in September, during a meeting in Uzbekistan of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Beijing’s concern regarding the course of the conflict in Ukraine was raised, as Putin himself admitted. In a meeting on December 21 with former Russian President Dmitri Medvedev, Xi called for a negotiated solution to the standoff between Moscow and kyiv.

Internally weakened by his disastrous handling of the pandemic emergency, it will be difficult for Xi to agree to go to Moscow if the Russians continue to suffer defeats in Ukraine. The Chinese supreme leader cannot afford to be associated with a “loser”, which would not benefit him in the geopolitical confrontation with the United States.