Putin exhausts Ukraine with another Sumy offensive as he tests nuclear weapons on the border

According to the Institute for the Study of War, it would be displaced troopsabout 10,000 men with few accompanying weapons, whose sole purpose would be exhaust Ukrainian defenses opening a new front. Let us remember that, during the last year and a half, the advances of both sides have been practically testimonial and have focused on the regions of Donetsk, Lugansk and, to a lesser extent, Zaporizhzhia. The heart of the war is in the cities of Chasiv Yar, west of Bakhmut; Ocheretyne, northwest of Avdiivka, and Robotyne, northeast of Tokmak.

Only last April did the Russian army decide to begin a new attempt to take Kharkov, the largest Russian-speaking city in Ukraine, and key to the concept of “Novorrosiya” or “New Russia” that guides Vladimir Putin’s military operation. This attempt also seems more like a diversionary maneuver than a proper offensive, but it has forced Ukraine to divert troops from Donbas to prevent a deeper penetration by the Russians, who, for the moment, are still stuck in the city of Vovchansk, some seven kilometers inside Ukrainian territory.

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Both operations respond to the Russian strategy of sending men to die at the front regardless of the number, which puts Ukraine in a difficult position, since a similar number of casualties cannot be allowed under any circumstances. In fact, as the Zelensky government announced this week, the mobilization of prisoners has become necessary and there are already 4,000 who have preferred to march to the front instead of remaining imprisoned. A measure that Russia already took two years ago and that caused more chaos than anything else.

Management of troops and weapons

Although it must be insisted that Russian advances are scarce and are coming at a brutal cost in weapons and human lives, it is true that they require an extra effort from the Ukrainian resistance. In recent weeks there has been much talk about the need for more weapons and better quality to arrive, but we must not forget that these weapons in turn require soldiers to use them. And those soldiers, right now, are exhausted. Ukraine had to review its regiment rotation policy at the beginning of spring, but these new almost suicidal operations make a necessary and prolonged rest in the reserve very difficult.

Zelensky and General Syrskyi, head of the army, They will have to decide how much territory they are willing to give up, where they are going to place their defenses and how many men they can send to the north of the country when Russia continues to press in the south and east. The feeling is that we are facing a decisive moment in the war that will be remembered in hindsight: Russia is putting all its efforts into action, convinced that the Ukrainian defenses will end up collapsing and with them international support.

The more territory Gerasimov’s army occupies, more power Russia would have in eventual peace negotiations. That is why it is vital that Ukraine resists this summer and that all necessary aid reaches the front. If the defenders manage to hold on in the Donbas, protect the cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, prevent Russian access to Kharkiv from the north and maintain the containment line around the course of the Dnieper River in the south, sooner or later Russia will have to go down. rhythm. They do not have enough weapons or soldiers to withstand so many losses.

Tactical nuclear weapons exercises

As part of the military pressure that Russia is exerting on Ukraine and the West, the Kremlin published this Tuesday some of the announced videos tactical nuclear weapons exercises next to the Ukrainian border. The use of tactical nuclear weapons – which, unlike strategic ones, are not intended to destroy large cities, but are intended for use on the front – was already contemplated during the spring and summer of 2022, when things began to go really bad for Russia.

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At that time, the NATO notice that it would respond with a massive conventional attack that would destroy all Russian troops in Ukraine, Crimea and the Black Sea seems to have served to lighten Russian nuclear rhetoric. The proximity of the elections in the United States, the diversion of the international focus towards Israel and Gaza, together with the aforementioned lack of results on the front have forced Moscow to once again wave the nuclear scarecrow. On the one hand, it is good news because these types of escalations are only announced when things go wrong. On the other hand, the mere mention of the word “nuclear” already serves to terrify the West and we cannot rule out that, where Biden said “don’t”, Trump will say something else.

That is probably the purpose of these exercises: dissuade Ukraine’s allies to avoid a supposed global nuclear conflict. Putin comes from meeting and hugging with Xi Jinping, the Chinese leader, who has been opposing the use of unconventional weapons all this time and adhering to the maxim of the Cold War: “A nuclear war should not be started in any case, since It is impossible to win it.” Vladimir Putin was educated on that same maxim when he was a KGB agent.

That said, it is normal for Ukraine to feel threatened. The problem is that, furthermore, it cannot do anything to prevent such exercises or similar maneuvers on the other side of the border. The United States, through its Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin, insisted yesterday on the prohibition of using weapons sent by its government outside of Ukrainian territory. In other words, Ukraine can only wait and see what happens and try to stop it. It cannot, unlike what Russia does, attack the control centers from which the missiles are sent. Fighting a bully is already complicated. Doing it with one hand tied behind your back is even more so.