Putin celebrates his 70th birthday paranoid about his defeats in Ukraine

Today, the Russian president celebrates his 70th anniversary and continues to strive to demonstrate its strength with a war in Ukraine which has lasted almost eight months. The problem is that what should be a display of power, a swift and decisive blow that would allow him to start rebuilding the lost empire he longs for, is having the opposite effect.

The recent losses on the battlefield, which have left images of soldiers retreating in disorder from strategic enclaves such as Kharkov, Izium or Limán, speak of a vulnerable Putin. Probably weaker than ever. At least that is what the main Western leaders believe, who consider that the draft of 300,000 Russian citizens and the growing nuclear rhetoric it is a gesture of desperation. That’s not counting the constant speculation about his poor health.

However, what Europe and the United States think does not matter to Putin. This is not the case with his international partners – China, Iran and Turkey – which have recently condemned Russia’s annexation of four illegally occupied Ukrainian provinces, further isolating it from the global community.

However, their biggest concern is actually what they think at home those who with their loyalty they keep him in power. And, it seems, he has reason to worry. As a consequence of the serious territorial losses in Ukraine (4,000 square kilometers in just one week) critical voices against the Russian leader have grown. Some even consider that has lost control… and authority. For example, the 84 district councilors from Moscow and St. Petersburg who asked for his resignation at the beginning of September.

[Kiev espera una victoria total y Putin anuncia que “reagrupa” sus tropas para contraatacar Jersón]

large-scale purge

Throughout his four terms in office, the Putin government has sought to silence dissent with laws that criminalize the opposition and, in some cases, through less conventional methods. Because it should be remembered that there are many suspicions that hang over the FSB, the Russian secret service heir to the KGB, for its alleged involvement in the deaths of numerous Russian oligarchs. Only so far this year, 10 tycoons connected to the Kremlin They have lost their lives under strange circumstances.

That’s not counting the mysterious poisonings of critics like former agents Sergey Skripal Y Alexander Litvinenko or the activist Alexei Navalny.

Now, to quell the growing criticism against his “special operation” – and ultimately against himself – Vladimir Putin, a former KGB agent, has initiated an internal restructuring based on the strategy of “carrots and sticks“. Or what is the same: of purges and rewards.

[La caída por la ventana del presidente de Lukoil, décimo suicidio de un oligarca que señala a Putin]

This same Wednesday, the Russian authorities arrested Alexei Slobodenyuk, an employee of the Patriot media group. He is accused of “fraud”, but the truth is that Slobodenyuk is in charge of manage military blogs What Release Z Kraken either skater where Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, State Duma Chairman Vyacheslav Volodin, and Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov had recently been criticized.

According to him Institute of the Study of War (ISW), this suggests that “the Kremlin is trying to set limits on which criticism is allowed in the information space.” And he talks about limits because Putin seems to have ruled out total censorship. He has chosen to take advantage of that small space of freedom of opinion.

In fact, as suggested by Investigation Institute American, the intention of the president is to draw attention to a scapegoat. Or, specifically towards two: the Russian Defense Minister, Sergei Shoiguand the commander of the Central Military District, Colonel General Alexander Lapin.

Earlier this week, Putin directly attacked the Defense Ministry in a television message, accusing it of “not making the necessary changes in the legal framework to expand the mobilization of reservists to students.” A comment that suggests that Putin wants his friend and closest collaborator, with whom he has shared more than one vacation in Siberia, is the one who takes the blame for the failures in Ukraine. Now, that doesn’t mean I’m going to remove him, at least while he can. use it as a scapegoat.

The strategy is not new: with each defeat in the Ukraine, heads have rolled in Russia. Only at the beginning of the war, dissatisfied with the FSB actionsPutin placed top official Serhiy Beseda under house arrest, Russian journalist Andrei Soldatov reported at the time. A string of dismissed officials followed.

new circle of trust

Now, however, mistrust seems to have completely taken hold of the Russian leader. Some even believe that make decisions on your own without listening to those who were once his advisers. “Russian officials are often unaware of their intentions like the rest of the world,” political analyst Tatiana Stanovaya explained to the British newspaper. The Times.

This after Western military sources assured in May that Putin, from his residence, was taking operational and tactical decisions at the same level as a colonel or brigadier.

Ramzán Kadyrov and Evgueni Prigozhin, owner of the Wagner group, are the new trusted men of Putin

However, Putin cannot be left alone. Much less at a time when the partial military mobilization has unleashed a wave of citizen protests throughout the country. That is why the Kremlin leader is trying to change his circle of trust and bring to his most radical followers so that they divert the blame towards Shoigú and calm the spirits of those who want an escalation of war.

One of the chosen is Chechen Ramzan Kadyrovwhom Putin has promoted to the rank of colonel general for his involvement in the war, to which he has promised to send his three minor children and in which has demanded the use of weapons low intensity nuclear

Until recently, no one dared to name names, but this week Chechnya’s leader blamed the failures on the front lines on Colonel General Alexander Lapin. “You have not provided the communications, the resources and the ammunition supply that the situation requires,” she said before calling him “mediocre“.

[Ramzan Kadyrov revive el juramento de los Horacios: enviará a sus tres hijos a combatir en Ucrania]

Following this speech, the businessman Yevgeny PrigozhinPutin’s intimate and owner of the Wagner mercenary group, said that “all these barefoot bastards should be sent to the front with automatic weapons”, in relation to the possibility of sending young people to the front.

He also criticized the mistakes being made in Ukraine and defended the purge of senior military officers. Or, in other words: he seconded the Russian president’s speech, so it would not be strange to see them, along with Kadyrov, celebrating Vladimir Putin’s 70th birthday.