Instrumental maneuver of the Kremlin: it wants France and Great Britain in the agreement but makes no reference to China. Beijing owns the world’s third largest atomic arsenal and demands nuclear parity with Moscow and Washington to join the New Start. Russian Expert: Putin’s Move Is Political, Not Military; Russia already has enough nuclear weapons. The risk of their being used in Ukraine is low.
Rome () – While the senior Chinese diplomatic envoy Wang Yi concluded his visit to Russia today with a meeting with Vladimir Putin, the Russian Duma (lower house of Parliament) approved suspending Moscow’s participation in the New Start treaty with the US on the reduction of nuclear weapons.
The Kremlin leader announced the interruption yesterday during a long speech in which he continued to justify the invasion of Ukraine due to the military threat from NATO. Under the New Start, the United States and Russia can each have 1,550 strategic nuclear devices (one long-range bomber equals one nuclear warhead).
Sergei Ryabkov, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister, said today that the restoration of the agreement with Washington will also depend on the positions of France and Great Britain, two NATO nuclear powers that can no longer be left out of the dialogue between Washington and Moscow on arms control. atomic.
Former President Dmitry Medvedev, who signed the New Start in 2011 – later renewed for another five years in 2021 – confirmed Ryabkov’s remarks. However, the Russian position seems to be completely instrumental: if London and Paris must also participate in order to reactivate the treaty, China should be included even more so. Russia’s “no limits” partner has long been working to increase its atomic arsenal.
The Federation of the American Scientist estimates that Russia has 5,977 nuclear warheads, the United States 5,428, to which must be added France’s 290 and Great Britain’s 225. China has 350 of them, but they wouldn’t be off the shelf, unlike most Russians and Americans.
China refuses to join the New Start unless Moscow and Washington agree to nuclear parity.
Various observers consider the suspension that Putin has decided to be a dangerous escalation. Alexander Savelyev, chief researcher at the Moscow-based Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations, disagrees. Advisor to the Start-1 negotiations between the US and the Soviet Union from 1989 to 1991, the Russian academic explained to that the Kremlin’s measure is “unpleasant”, but it has more political and not military effects.
Asked about the possible increase in Russian nuclear forces, Savelyev explained that Putin might like to, but the reality is that he cannot: “Reinforcing a strategic nuclear arsenal is very expensive and takes a long time, years and not months. In addition, Russia has enough nuclear weapons. It would not make sense [adquirir más]”.
As for the possibility of Moscow using nuclear devices in Ukraine, Savelyev says the risk is low at the moment. “It was quite high in the early stages of the Ukrainian conflict, because it was not clear whether there was a so-called Gerasimov strategy or not.” It refers to a strategy by the Chief of Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (who is currently also the commander of the theater of operations in Ukraine) that would contemplate the use of nuclear weapons at the beginning of a military offensive. “I hope – concludes the expert – that the leaders and authorities responsible for making these decisions do not have suicidal instincts.”
