Puerto Rico prepares for elections as third-party candidate makes history

The two parties that have dominated Puerto Rican politics for decades are losing their influence as they face the stiffest competition yet from a younger generation fed up with the island’s corruption, constant power outages and mismanagement of public funds. .

For the first time in the island’s gubernatorial election, a third-party candidate is running a strong second in polls ahead of the U.S. territory’s vote scheduled for Tuesday, and some experts say there’s a chance he could gain.

“This election is already historic,” said political analyst and university professor Jorge Schmidt Nieto. “It already marks a before and after.”

Juan Dalmau is running for the alliance of the Puerto Rican Independence Party and the Citizen Victory Movement, just founded in 2019. An international Gaither poll conducted this month shows Dalmau closing in on Jenniffer González, of the New Progressive Party and current resident commissioner for Puerto Rico in the United States House of Representatives. González defeated Governor Pedro Pierluisi in his party’s primaries in June.

Gaither’s poll shows Dalmau with 29% support to González’s 31%, as he has nearly caught up with her since a different poll in July showed him with just 24% compared to the congresswoman’s 43%. In third place was Jesús Manuel Ortiz, from the Popular Democratic Party, followed by Javier Jiménez from Proyecto Dignidad, a conservative party founded in 2019.

Under pressure

Puerto Rican politics revolves around the status of the island. Until 2016, the New Progressive Party, which supports statehood, and the People’s Democratic Party, which supports the status quo, shared at least 90% of all votes during general elections, Schmidt detailed.

But that year, Congress created a federal oversight board to oversee Puerto Rico’s finances after the government announced it could not pay a public debt of more than $70 billion. In 2017, Puerto Rico filed for the largest municipal bankruptcy in U.S. history.

The debt was accumulated through decades of corruption, mismanagement and excessive borrowing. The Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority is still struggling to restructure its debt of more than $9 billion, the largest of any government agency.

Puerto Ricans have largely rejected and resented the presence of the junta, created a year before Hurricane Maria hit the island with Category 4 force, devastating the power grid.

In 2020, Pierluisi won but received just 33% of the vote. His opponent from the Popular Democratic Party obtained 32%. It was the first time that neither party reached 40% of the votes.

Power outages that have persisted since the election, along with the slow pace of post-hurricane reconstruction, have frustrated and angered voters. Under Pierluisi, the government signed contracts with two companies, Luma Energy and Genera PR, which together oversee power generation, transmission and distribution. Outages have persisted, and companies have blamed a lack of maintenance and investment on a grid that was already crumbling before the hurricane hit.

“Disastrous things have happened during this four-year term, especially with electric power,” Schmidt said. “It has affected everyone, regardless of social class.”

Voters, he said, are viewing Tuesday’s election “as a moment of revenge.”

Dalmau has promised to expel both companies in an “organized” manner within six months if he becomes governor. Ortiz said he will cancel Luma’s contract, while González has called for the creation of an “energy czar” to review possible contractual breaches by Luma while another operator is found.

However, no contract can be canceled without prior approval from the federal control board and the Puerto Rico Energy Bureau.

Candidates are also under pressure to create affordable housing, reduce energy bills and the overall cost of living, decrease violent crime, boost Puerto Rico’s economy—the island has been locked out of capital markets since 2015—and improve a crumbling health system as thousands of doctors emigrate to the continental United States.

Dalmau — who suspended his campaign for two weeks in mid-October after his wife underwent emergency brain surgery — has also said he will eliminate tax breaks for wealthy Americans coming from the continental United States.

Apathy predominates

Despite their promises to change Puerto Rico, the candidates face persistent voter apathy.

1.9 million of a total of 2.5 million registered voters participated in the 2008 elections, compared to 1.3 million of a total of 2.3 million in 2020.

This year, almost 99,000 new voters registered and more than 87,000 reactivated their status, according to the Puerto Rico State Elections Commission.

“A much larger number was expected,” Schmidt stressed.

He noted that those who are middle-aged and older favor González and his pro-statehood party, while those under 45 “overwhelmingly” favor Dalmau, which means that if a majority of young voters participate on Tuesday and fewer of the older ones do so , he might have a chance to win.

The Bad Bunny factor

The months leading up to the November 5 elections have been conflictive.

Reggaeton superstar Bad Bunny paid for dozens of billboard ads criticizing Puerto Rico’s two main parties. In response, the governor’s party, the New Progressive Party, funded a billboard ad suggesting an obscenity in reference to Bad Bunny.

On Friday, the singer published a one-page letter in a local newspaper criticizing González’s pro-statehood party.

Although the artist has not endorsed any local officials, the only person he recently began following on Instagram was Dalmau.

On Sunday he appeared briefly at the closing of Dalmau’s campaign. Silence fell over a crowd of tens of thousands as Bad Bunny spoke before singing, saying that he does not endorse any specific candidate or party.

“My party is the people… my party is Puerto Rico,” he declared, and later praised the alliance between the Puerto Rican Independence Party and the Citizen Victory Movement.

A persistent question

Voters on Tuesday will also be asked for the seventh time what Puerto Rico’s political status should be.

The non-binding referendum will offer three options: statehood, independence and independence with free association, under which issues such as foreign relations, US citizenship and the use of the dollar would be negotiated.

Regardless of the outcome, a change in status requires approval by the United States Congress.

“For many people, it is a demoralizing exercise to vote in a non-binding referendum,” said Christina Ponsa-Kraus, a professor at Columbia Law School. “The reason Puerto Ricans have voted seven times is that every time they vote, Congress does nothing.”

The push for a change in status does not depend on whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump win the presidency in the continental United States.

“What is at stake goes beyond who becomes president, but rather who controls Congress,” Ponsa-Kraus explained, calling on the US Congress to offer Puerto Rico “non-colonial options.”

He also said it is difficult to say whether the gubernatorial candidacy of Dalmau, who has long represented the Puerto Rican Independence Party, will affect the plebiscite vote.

“My feeling is that … people can distinguish between a candidate and a status option,” he said. “I think Puerto Ricans historically have not supported independence because they do not want to lose their citizenship or the ability to move freely between the mainland United States and the island.”

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