PUERTA DE ORIENTE One year before the elections, Iraq is without a government and on the verge of civil war

Appeal from the UN mission, asking for a “dialogue without preconditions” that allows unblocking the situation of political and institutional stalemate. Since the elections on October 10, 2021, an agreement has not yet been reached for the appointment of a prime minister and a new government. The current executive is only empowered to manage current affairs. Economic problems and waste of wealth. An unresolved knot: the (Christian) refugees.

Milan () – A “dialogue without preconditions” is needed to unblock the situation of political and institutional stalemate that Iraq has been dragging on for a year. The parliamentary elections of October 2021 did not guarantee a definitive majority, and then prevailed the logic of crossed vetoes. The latest to launch the appeal is the United Nations Assistance Mission in Iraq (UNAMI), which calls on all the actors involved, from the Sadrists to the pro-Iranians, from the Sunnis to the Kurds, to join forces in order to allow the emergence of a new executive.

The UN statement urges the parties to “make a commitment”: “they must agree on key objectives” to address the “needs of the Iraqi people” and “establish an effective government with full powers”. However, there are no positive developments on the horizon: the power vacuum runs the risk of favoring, today as in the past, a new spiral of violence by jihadist movements or interest groups supported by regional or international actors. It’s about a impasse institutional rather than political an abyss – as defined by the Chaldean bishops – which should be resolved, according to some, not with an early vote, but with a restructuring of the State and changes in the rules of competition. Also in this case, interest in the country is relegated to the background, overwhelmed by partisan selfishness and the personal objectives of political leaders and their mentors abroad.

institutional paralysis

A year ago, Iraq held early parliamentary elections, in response to nationwide street protests against corruption and embezzlement. To date, the country does not have a new government, nor has it been able to vote -or approve- the State budget, as well as the appointment of a new President of the Republic and a Prime Minister. The interim positions were extended, except for the Speaker of the House: the Sunni Mohammed al Habousi was elected, but he subsequently submitted his resignation.

For the Head of State, which must be occupied by a Kurd, several candidates have been burned and there is no unanimous consensus on the extension of Bahram Salih’s mandate. The paralysis has led Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi himself to publish a statement in which, addressing all the forces, he asks that collaboration be renewed and the crisis be put to an end through dialogue. However, the words seem destined to fall on deaf ears, prolonging the stalemate of an interim executive with greatly reduced powers and room for maneuver. Especially in the economic sphere, and in the face of regional and global alliances.

The crux of the issue revolves around the winner of the elections: the radical Shiite leader Moqtada al-Sadr does not want to submit to an Executive of alliances, but neither does he have the numbers to form a majority government. For its part, the pro-Iranian Shia faction of the Coordination Framework is pressing for the formation of a government based on agreements.

Added to this are the tensions fueled by interference from abroad and foreign powers with opposing interests. The paralysis in the institutions contrasts with the mobilizations in the streets: tensions were exacerbated at the end of August after Al Sadr’s announcement that he wanted to withdraw from political life. His words pushed sympathizers and supporters into the streets, risking a civil war.

After the call of the Shia leader himself and a laborious mediation effort, calm was restored, avoiding further bloodshed. But the country’s many problems persist. “The situation remains extremely fragile,” stressed special envoy Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert to the UN Security Council. “Too many Iraqis have lost confidence in the political class and in its ability to act in the country’s interest,” she added.

Growth and poverty

Iraq is a country rich in hydrocarbons, but devastated by decades of conflict. This year it has achieved significant income thanks to oil exports, wealth that ends up trapped -and unused- in the coffers of the Central Bank, where foreign exchange reserves have reached almost 90,000 million euros. To invest this wealth, a fully empowered government is needed, capable of presenting a budget to Parliament, a prerogative that does not correspond to the interim executive, since it can only manage current affairs. “Any infrastructure project requires years of planning,” says economist Yesar Al-Maleki in dialogue with L’Orient-Le Jour, “The political situation has caused a great disturbance, and this aggravates the bad reputation” of the country, he adds.

On the other hand, the World Bank shows projections of an average annual economic growth of 5.4% between 2022 and 2024. In June, Parliament approved an emergency financing law for almost 18,000 million euros, which includes the purchase of gas and electricity, and also of grains to guarantee “food security”. This chaotic situation “does not allow opportunities for economic growth in the private sector,” despite its enormous potential. Looking ahead to 2023, the authorities may be tempted to pass another emergency financing law. In fact, several projects put forward by the Oil Ministry and foreign companies are moving too slowly. And the cost is paid by the people: in a nation of 42 million inhabitants, almost four out of ten young people are out of work and a third of the population lives in poverty (UN sources).

The displaced, a current emergency

It is the weakest and most marginalized sectors of the population that suffer. Among them are the Christian refugees who, in the summer of 2014 following the rise of the Islamic State (IS, formerly Isis), abandoned their homes and lands in Mosul and the Nineveh Plain. Few of them were able to return; Many more remain abandoned to their fate, and a weak government, combined with virtually absent aid institutions and realities, have contributed to aggravating the emergency. Among the few realities that try to help, albeit with limited resources, is the Chaldean Church and its primate, Card. Louis Raphael Sako, who in recent days visited the Zayouna reception center, on the outskirts of the capital, to accompany the guests in their suffering and needs.

On October 5, Cardinal Sako, accompanied by Auxiliary Bishop Basil Yaldo, visited the Virgin Mary complex, which the Baghdad Investment and Development Department intends to evacuate. The facilities are on state land, housing up to 120 families who were relocated by the central government. Some of the problems that these families face are the start of the school year, the need to guarantee that their children can attend class and the arrival of winter. Cardinal Sako is negotiating with those responsible for the Capitoline administration to postpone the evacuation. At least for a year, so that a suitable alternative can be found and housed elsewhere, while Iraq works on long-term solutions. What the Church wants to avoid, above all, is a new exodus abroad – to Europe, North America or Australia – which would increase the already high number of Chaldeans in the diaspora.

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