PUERTA DE ORIENTE Between prisons and executions, Iranians vote to elect a new president

On June 28, the country goes to the polls to elect the successor of Raisi, who died on May 19 in an accident with his helicopter. Six names are running, five of them exponents of the ultra-conservative wing. The hijab among the campaign issues, because none of the candidates has a real recipe for the economic crisis. Risk of abstentionism. The campaign of repression continues, Christians also in the spotlight.

Milan () – In the presidential elections of June 28, in view of which the Tehran authorities have imposed a new campaign of repression with executions and arrests that does not spare even Christians, experts consider that a game is being played three-way among the most accredited candidates: they are the president of Parliament (Majles) Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili and the deputy Massoud Pezeshkian. The first two are exponents of the ultraconservative wing linked to the supreme guide, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, to whom they swear blind obedience, while the third comes from the reformist wing and wants to play the role of “outsider.” One of these three, in all probability, will succeed Ebrahim Raisi, who died on May 19 when his helicopter crashed in circumstances that are not entirely clear, although the hypothesis of the failure of a long-lived and poorly maintained device prevails.

Analysts and observers already consider three other ultra-conservative candidates out of the presidential game: Amir Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi, the mayor of Tehran Alireza Zakani and the former Minister of Justice Mostafa Pourmohammadi. In recent days, the Council of Guardians of the Constitution – which also admitted only male candidates for this round of elections – rejected another attempt to bring back former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Also left out of the race was Ali Larijani, three-time President of Parliament and with a religious and conservative background. The rejection shows how marginal the options are, with the exception of the representatives of the radical and extremist faction linked to the supreme leader, to the point that the real winner should also be the party of abstentionism this time.

Between the hijab and the vote

With such a choice – and only six admitted out of 80 – it is unlikely that the elections will generate much interest for Iranians in a game already decided by Khamenei. In the last elections in 2021, which marked Raisi’s rise, the Council had only approved seven names out of more than 500 candidates, but at the time of the vote, three others had withdrawn, presenting only four names on the ballots. The ultra-conservative deputy Amir Hossein Sabeti announced the results of a poll carried out by a government agency – polls are the prerogative of the State and are usually covered by secrecy -, according to which Jalili would have 23% of the votes, while his rival Ghalibaf 21% and Pezeshkian 13%. The figure for abstentionism is much higher: a “home” survey by journalist Maryam Shokrani on social networks shows that 88% of respondents on Instagram (out of 3,374 votes) and 73.99% in X (out of 6,433 profiles) They have no intention of going to the polls. A symbolic survey, but one that confirms the disinterest of Iranians in voting while the government detains journalists and pressures the media to report on participatory elections, while blocking articles or editorials in which the principle of competition or support for an individual. In this regard, even the Pasdaran would express – at least on paper – a position of neutrality.

One of the issues at the center of the debate, given that no one has a defined program to try to counteract the crisis linked (also) to Western sanctions over the atomic program, was that of the hijab: for Saeed Jalili, it is a social advantage and should defend themselves vigorously, because “women’s clothing is part of their security and peaceful presence in society”; Amirhossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi also supports the mandatory headscarf regulations; former Interior Minister Mostafa Pourmohammadi reiterates “the importance of following the law”; Alireza Zakani has displayed banners and posters in Tehran about the hijab, which she calls a “moral, legal and religious duty”; For Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the headscarf laws are a “significant success” in his tenure; the only voice outside the chorus is that of Masoud Pezeshkian, who extols the role of women and freedom of choice, as well as a lesser presence of the morality police.

Jalili is seen by many as a boring hardline Islamist ideologue with no executive experience. The favorite appears to be Qalibaf, 62, closely linked to the Pasdaran and praised – although not mentioned – in a public speech last week by Khamenei. However, many remember how, as a Guardian general, he participated in the violent repression of university students in 1999 and allegedly ordered the opening of fire on students in 2003. An exception to the hardliners is Pezeshkian, MP for Tabriz: Relatively moderate, he has little chance of winning if turnout is very low, but he could win the votes of many voters who would otherwise be reluctant and want to challenge the hardliners.

Prisons and executions

The weeks leading up to the vote were characterized by a wave of repression consisting of executions and convictions, an established practice in the Islamic Republic, where Islam (Shia) is the state religion. And, despite their attempt to give a veneer of legitimacy to the electoral process, the ayatollahs seem more concerned with quelling possible protests or stopping disagreements between factions. In the last period alone, eight prisoners have been executed for various crimes, while judges continue to use capital punishment as a coercive tool: among those who may be in the hands of the executioner is the Sunni cleric and political prisoner Mohammad Khezrnejad, sentenced to death for “involvement” in the 2022 protests, triggered by the murder of the 22-year-old Kurdish girl Mahsa Amini at the hands of the morality police for not wearing the hijab correctly.

Updated figures from the Human Rights Council report that Iran is responsible for 75% of global executions, the first country in the world among nations to provide official statistics because China, Vietnam and North Korea oppose state secrecy. In response, inmates in some prisons have been on hunger strike every Tuesday for five months. Furthermore, it is the figures that confirm the escalation: according to Amnesty International, the Islamic Republic has reached its peak of executions in the last eight years, executing 853 people in 2023. The report indicates that 481 executions, more than half, were related to drug crimes, with an increase of 89% compared to 2022, when 255 people were sent to hanging for drug trafficking or drug addiction. And an increase of 264% compared to 2021, when 132 were executed.

(Also) Christians in the spotlight

The widespread recourse to the executioner is not the only critical element in a framework of growing fracture between the theocratic leadership and the youth (and university) universe, which insistently demands rights and freedom. A repression that also affects Christians, as demonstrated by the case of the Armenian Hakop Gochumyan, in prison since the summer and recently sentenced to 10 years in prison. This 35-year-old man was convicted of “proselytizing activities” defined as “deviant”, which “contradict the sacred law of Islam” and for belonging to and directing “an evangelical Christianity network.” In fact, the court relied on his possession of seven volumes of the Gospel in Farsi and his visit to two Armenian churches and a house church during a vacation in Iran. He also made extensive use of Article 160 of the Penal Code, which allows judges to use their “personal intuition” in the absence of evidence. The verdict was handed down by magistrate Iman Afshari, of the Revolutionary Court of Tehran, who is gaining fame as a persecutor of Christians: in addition to the young Armenian, three others received 10-year sentences; one defendant received a two-year sentence; five were banned from leaving Iran and living in Tehran for two years; The ten were fined $8,000 and deprived of basic rights such as membership in political or social groups.

On the other hand, an Iranian Christian convert from Islam who had been in prison for months was sentenced on May 28 by the Ahvaz court, in the west of the country, to five years in prison for acting “against national security” by communicating with ” ‘Zionist’ Christian organizations”. Esmaeil Narimanpour, 37, had already been forced to take religious “re-education” courses and is part of a group of 50 people imprisoned during the Christmas holidays. His home in Dezful, 150 km north of Ahvaz, was searched and books related to the Christian religion were confiscated, although officers did not have a search warrant. He was transferred to a Ministry of Intelligence detention center in Ahvaz, where he spent 18 days before being locked up in Shiban.

Finally, last week the arrest of convert Farrokh Kakaei, held in an undisclosed location, was confirmed, much to the concern of his wife and two daughters, who have not heard from him, 55, since his arrest on 26 May. Four plainclothes intelligence agents took him from his house without formal charges and confiscated photos of Jesus, his computer, his mobile phone and an external memory card. Like him, at least 14 Iranian Christians have been detained this year, but most remain secret. According to updated data from Article18, a website specialized in documenting the ongoing repression against religious minorities, 15 Christians have already been sentenced to prison for crimes related to their faith in 2024; Of them, at least seven have already begun serving their sentences and another dozen will be tried at the end of the month, all on charges related to the peaceful practice of their faith disguised as crimes against “national security.”

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