A calmer situation is observed at the border. In Georgia there is political chaos due to the approval of a controversial law on “foreign agents”. There are no illusions about the prospects for reconciliation and recognition of separations. Committed to the Ukraine, the Russians want to keep calm on the Caucasian front.
In recent days, some representatives of Georgia’s breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, protected by Russia, have expressed unprecedented appreciation for Tbilisi’s political decisions. The positive comments coincided with Georgia’s proposal of a controversial “foreign agents” law, which is sparking huge protests in the streets. The separatists also believe that relations with their neighbors are improving at this time.
The head of the Ossetian delegation for border control, Egor Kočilev, spoke from the headquarters of Ergneti, the small town where meetings with Russians and Georgians are held for the prevention of border incidents (what is called MPRI format). , and affirmed that “in the last month and a half the situation has been the calmest in a long time”. For his part, the president of Abkhazia, Aslan Bžanja, said at a press conference in Sukhumi that “the current leaders of Georgia are proving to be able to keep the situation under control.”
Statements in support of the “pro-Russian course” of the Tbilisi policy only increase tensions in Georgia, exposing the echoes of the Kremlin’s propaganda. Kochilev stressed that “since January 17 there have been no incidents, we have not had to detain anyone for infractions or violations on the Georgian side, as has always been the order of the day all these years. We have only observed a few drones passing from one side to the other, but the Georgian policemen and soldiers have also behaved well.”
Until now the separatists had always maintained a polemical tone with respect to the Georgians, but the Ossetian political scientist Vjačeslav Gobozov tries to deny the propaganda nature of the change: “They are the usual conspiracy theories, although without a doubt in Tsikbal and Sukhumi they appreciate the latest decisions of a government that is not considered the best possible, but that is at least capable of keeping an unbearable opposition under control.” No one has any illusions about a prospect of reconciliation and recognition of the separations, but “at least the current leaders of Tbilisi are not talking about a military solution to the problems.”
It would not then be a trend towards appeasement that inspires the Georgian Dream government, but “a more conscious assessment of how much Russia influences regional politics”, Gobozov declares. According to the academic, it is not the Kremlin that “gives orders” to the two self-proclaimed republics, where there is a division regarding autonomy or annexation to the Russian Federation. The political scientist considers that Kočilev’s statements have the purpose of improving the agreements in the MPRI format, trying to involve international institutions such as the OSCE, the UN and the EU to obtain confirmations that make the border situation with the former truly stable. metropolis, reactivating the negotiations between the parties.
The analyst of the International Crisis Group, Olesja Vartanyan, basically confirms Gobozov’s version, in the sense that the distensive statements of Tsikbal and Sukhumi are oriented towards the upcoming meetings in Geneva to discuss the borders with Georgia. It was recently proposed to move the meetings to Moscow, but this could push Georgia to lean more towards Western support, given the background of the war with Ukraine, and the separatists want to show Tbilisi that they do not want to exacerbate tensions.
Vartanyan points out that “in general, the situation in the border areas is becoming more and more stable since the conflict in Ukraine began, as noted not only by international mediators but also by representatives of the parties involved, and arrests and checks have also been they are resolved without too much trouble.” Clearly, Russia is especially interested in not having to worry about problems in the Caucasus while it is on the verge of invading Ukraine, and Georgia also wants to avoid ending up in the maelstrom of war.
