Prime Minister Prayut, trailing in the polls a month before the elections

In the lead, the daughter of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. Voting will take place on May 14 and more than 52 million voters will participate. The elections do not include the Senate, whose members were appointed in 2019 by the Military Junta. The main candidates and human rights concerns.

Bangkok () – A month before the general elections in Thailand, polls show the main opposition party, the Pheu Thai Party, as the favorite. However, the current prime minister, General Prayut Chan-ocha, who rose to power after a coup in 2014, could win a third term if his new formation, the United Thai Nation Party, allies with one of the other conservative and pro-military formations.

The electoral law

On May 14, more than 52,000 voters are called to the polls, where they will receive two ballots: one for the local constituency deputy and another for the party list, necessary to elect the 500 deputies of the Chamber of Deputies, 400 of which come from the constituencies and 100 from the party list system.

The Senate, for its part, is made up of 250 members appointed in 2019 by the National Council for Peace and Order (name adopted by the Military Junta after the 2014 coup). He will not be affected by the vote, but at the end of August he will meet with the House to appoint the next prime minister, who will need at least 376 votes to govern. It should be remembered that in the last elections of 2019, the Senate had voted en bloc in favor of Prayut.

Last week Human Rights Watch affirmed that the current political circumstances prevent the holding of free and democratic elections. And this is because the legal framework is governed by a Constitution drafted in 2017 by an assembly elected by the Military Junta, which reinforces military power to the detriment of civil power.

Thai law prohibits the buying and selling of votes, but also the sale of alcoholic beverages and the holding of “drinking parties” from 6pm on the day before the election until the end of election day. People not allowed to vote include prisoners, people with severe mental illness, and monks.

The (main) candidates

In recent years, marked by unrest and economic difficulties, the popularity of Prayut, 69, has been waning, who in 2019 left the military uniform to dress in civilian clothes. The former general has promised that, if he is re-elected, he will finish the work that he started in 2014 and find a successor in the next two years, by virtue of an order of the Constitutional Court. In fact, Prayut, having reached the limit of eight years in office, could only serve half a term.

Prawit Wongsuwan, 77, filled the void left by Prayut within the Palang Pracharat party after the creation of the United Thai Nation Party. He was deputy minister during the current government and, like Prayut, comes from the Military Junta, which is why he is considered one of the most powerful men in Thailand. For these elections, he has positioned himself as a bridge figure between the conservative forces and the democratic forces.

The Pheu Thai Party, the opposition group that – under other names – had won every election held since 2001, presented 36-year-old Paethongtharn Shinawatra, the youngest daughter of exiled former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, as its main candidate, hoping to prevail. to the Senate voting bloc to form a new government. Known by the nickname “Ung Ing” and a political neophyte, she is an executive at a real estate company. She campaigned in Thailand’s wealthy rural strongholds proposing populist policies, such as raising the daily wage to 600 baht (about $17.5). Her popularity has been growing, but Pheu Thai has also nominated Srettha Thavisin, 60, the CEO of one of the country’s largest real estate companies, very popular with the business community. According to some observers, her candidacy is a counterweight to that of Shinawatra, who has little experience in the eyes of the Thai public.

Pita Limjaroenrat, 42, second in the polls but with a clear difference of about 15 percentage points, was first elected to parliament in 2019. He is the candidate and leader of the progressive opposition party, Move Forward. The group is very popular with youth, and has in the past proposed amendments to Thailand’s strict lese majesty law, which punishes insults to the royal family with up to 15 years in prison.

For his part, the current Prime Minister of Health, Anutin Charnvirakul, 56, could become the decisive vote, according to some analysts. His party, the Bhumjaithai, controls nearly 50 seats in Parliament and has worked to decriminalize recreational marijuana use, sparking anger among conservative parties.

Economy, youth and human rights

The economy is the main issue addressed by the parties’ proposals: they promise higher wages, better jobs and subsidies. In recent years, the cost of living has increased significantly and households are highly indebted. At the international level, after the coup, there was an economic rapprochement between Thailand and China. In 2022 Thai growth was 2.8%, and even by 2023 Thailand’s National Council for Economic and Social Development statistics predict a slow economic rebound of around 3%, unlike other Southeast Asian nations.

Many observers are attentive to the role of young people, after the protests that three years ago called for the reform of the monarchy. Since July 2020, the Thai authorities have charged more than 1,800 pro-democracy activists, opposition supporters and government critics for expressing their views or participating in peaceful political demonstrations. The defendants also include more than 280 minors, including 41 under the age of 15, Human Rights Watch reported. To this day, the Electoral Commission prohibits any reference to the monarchy in electoral campaigns and has threatened to prosecute those who violate the ban. In November 2021, the Constitutional Court ruled that criticizing the monarchy amounts to an act of treason.