The nominal series of exports of primary products and total exports, which are part of the recent update of information in CEPALSTAT and available for consultation, allow identifying the pressures on natural resources in Latin America and the Caribbean.
This information has been subjected to two types of adjustments: first, the annual nominal items have been deflated to eliminate the effect of price variations, and second, reclassified according to the base natural resource from which they come in order to be able to distinguish between renewables and non-renewable.
To eliminate the effect of price variations, the Basic Price Index (44 products) was used, which allows deflating exports of primary products, and the Unit Value Index (IVUX) for the same purpose, with total exports. Thus, a participation rate of primary exports over total exports was obtained for Latin America and the Caribbean for the period 1900-2019, as indicated by the gray line in the graph.
Source: ECLAC, based on the United Nations Statistical Database on International Trade (UN COMTRADE).
The reclassification based on the natural resource of origin was achieved using the data on primary exports deflated, and distributed according to the rates calculated from the reclassification of the CUCI headings to five digits (items), reclassified as primary products and natural resources. semi-processed according to the basic natural resource: land, water, plant, animal. This process allows obtaining the share of primary exports based on non-renewable natural resources and primary exports based on renewable natural resources. The bars of the graph show the total primary exports at constant prices and their composition according to the natural resource base for the region from 1990 to 2019.
According to these data, which consider systematic GDP growth for that (pre-pandemic) period, the real increase in exports shown is accompanied by an expansion in primary exports. Between 1990 and 2019, real exports go from about 198 billion dollars to 530 billion dollars (in constant 2010 currency), although it maintains a share of approximately 58% during almost the entire last decade.
Permanent pressure on natural resources
The income obtained from primary exports of natural resources in the region has been growing since 1990, which shows that the pressure on natural resources has also been growing. The accumulated effects -the sum of the annual flows- imply that extractivist activities, collection and processing of natural resources, systematically put pressure on the region’s stock.
However, at the level of Latin America and the Caribbean, the annual pressure (flow) behaves according to certain trends. Between 1990 and 2007, the annual rate of participation of primary exports in total exports fell vertically from just over 80% to 50%. It shows a peak in 2009 that exceeds 60%, but between 2008 and 2019 the rate stabilizes around a 60%-50% band, oscillating around 55%. Therefore, beyond a considerable and sustained decrease between 1990 and 2007, it can be affirmed that, during the last three decades, the insertion of the region in international trade with a systematic annual expansion of primary exports, without a doubt, maintains a permanent pressure on the stocks of natural resources.
This permanent pressure does not mean that the stocks of all natural resources decrease in the same way. The graph presents real exports separated according to whether they are renewable and non-renewable natural resources. Between 1994 and 2013, exports clearly grow systematically and their main contribution is based on non-renewable natural resources, therefore, they generate an equally systematic pressure on their stocks.
Despite the fact that in the following years real exports based on non-renewables decrease, the trend continues, which does not eliminate the pressure on these stocks. Although, according to these data, in the years after 2013, exports based on renewable natural resources grew widely, contributing practically 50% in the statistics.
It is important to remember that, although all stocks of natural resources are subject to the same extraction pressure, in the case of non-renewable natural resources, due to their nature, their stocks always decrease. While, in the case of renewable natural resources, they depend on whether the exploitation pressure considers their renewal processes. Of course, all of the above without taking into account the effect of differentiated regulation policies together with their impacts, by resource and by country.
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