presidential elections will be marked by increasing violence and the economic crisis

Next February 25 Nigeria goes to the polls to elect its next president. 18 candidates seek to replace the current president, Muhammadu Buhari, who is ending his last term.

Buhari leaves the country with a runaway economic crisis, despite being the leading African economy. Whoever succeeds him will also inherit a serious security problem.

In this sense, Nigerians will go to the polls to choose who they consider capable of managing these two factors that affect the development of the nation. Proof of this was the extension of the deadline issued by the local Electoral Commission to extend the authorization of voters to be able to exercise their right. According to the AP news agency, some lined up for days to collect their permanent voter card.

Nigeria has an estimated population of 210 million people. It is important to take into account that, of this figure, almost 40%, that is, 93 million people, are under 35 years of age. A factor to be taken into account by the candidates when it comes to attracting votes.

Who is leading the race for the leadership of the country?

Of the 18 applicants, only three have a real chance of aspiring to the Presidency. One of them is Atiku Abbubakar. His candidacy is supported by the Popular Democratic Party. He is 76 years old and was vice president of the country. It is the third time he has run for office. The last time he lost to the current outgoing president.

Among his proposals are the increase in private participation in the economy, the privatization of the state oil company and the reinforcement of the armed forces, among others. He is a Muslim and his running mate is a Christian, which many see as a ploy to capture that religious vote.

Another favorite candidate is 70-year-old Bola Ahmed Tinubu. He is the candidate that goes hand in hand with the current ruling party, the Congress of All Progressives, of which he is a founder with Muhammadu Buhari.

He is nicknamed “the godfather of Lagos”, for being governor in that region for a period of at least seven years. Like Atiku Abbubakar, Tinubu has been accused of corruption, a fact that both deny. Not only is he an influential politician in the Southwest, he is also a successful businessman.

As is to be expected, the standard-bearer of the current Government intends to give continuity to the policies applied in the last two terms. But he also has up his sleeve the end of the fuel subsidy and from those profits to route the money towards agricultural production, social works and an expansion of the military forces.

In this case, the rules were not followed when looking for a vice president. Candidates must seek a partner of a different religion. Ahmed Tinubu opted for a Muslim, just like him.

And beyond all odds, the race for the presidential seat was joined by a younger candidate than the two previous ones. From the small Labor Party, Pedro Gregorio Obi entered the competition hand in hand with young voters.

Obi, 61, is not a newcomer to the world of political candidacies. He was Atiku’s choice for vice president in 2019. In his resume as governor of Anambra, he shows a budget surplus in 2014.

Obi’s proposals revolve in this sense, knowing how to channel the inconvenience of Nigerians on the economic issue. Ending dependence on the oil industry, boosting production in the field, exports, tripling electricity generation or achieving better financing for the Army, among others.

According to the Reuters news agency, Gregorio is not left out of the accusations for economic irregularities. His name was seen in the ‘Pandora Papers’. According to these, he operated companies in tax havens.

In accordance with his campaign line, he opted for the economist Yusuf Baba-Ahmed, who also served as a senator from the state of Kaduna.

The economy, a key aspect for these elections

Despite being recognized as Africa’s largest economy, Nigeria is struggling with unemployment, rising inflation and the devaluation of the local currency, the naira. The EFE news agency reports, citing World Bank sources, that four out of 10 local citizens live below the poverty line.

Added to this is the current cash shortage. Long lines are seen at ATMs waiting for them to have money. This situation causes many to experience difficulties in obtaining food and basic items, which exacerbates the general malaise, including electoral abstention.

This situation is partly due to a new economic reorganization plan in which the authorities seek to insert new banknotes at the national level in order to curb inflation and money laundering. The truth is that, in this context, a good part of Nigerians have not been able to withdraw their savings from banks.

For their part, other analysts saw the strategy as a step taken to avoid using cash to buy votes. Even the central bank has accused various politicians of hoarding the new notes to influence elections.

Other voices, those of the economic analysts quoted by the AP agency, point out to the bank that it does not correctly plan the process that is carried out.

“Huge security challenges”

“Thousands of people have died and thousands of people have had to leave their homes. The country has spent billions of dollars to fight terrorists, but for the moment few results have been achieved”, Isaac Owale said in an interview for EFE.

This is the other issue to put on the table when analyzing the national panorama. It is not for nothing that the three main candidates have, in one way or another, the strengthening of the armed forces as one of their main campaign proposals.

According to Owale, “Nigeria has enormous security challenges.” And it is that added to the activity in its territory of terrorist groups such as the Islamic State or Boko Haram, the African country has to deal with criminal gangs that commit crimes in the territory. They steal, assault and kidnap with an almost constant frequency.

Political violence is also present, targeting institutions such as the headquarters of the Independent National Electoral Commission, or more recently the assassination of a candidate for the Senate in the state of Enugu. The police pointed to separatist groups, who burned the vehicles of various parties and their occupants, including the politician and a driver from another party.

“This atmosphere of violence” can lead to “great danger” to the nation’s democracy, Isaac Owale said. The democratic path in the most populous nation in Africa came in 1999 after suffering several military dictatorships.

Other views on the elections

According to the analyst of Open Society FoundationAyisha Osori, Nigeria is “having one of our most polarized elections…our campaign message is much more focused on interfaith competition, interethnic competition and trying to address issues of political equity.”

For his part, Hassan Idayat, director of the Center for Democracy and Development, opined that “this time it is the youth who are very involved in the process; They are not only involved as voters, but in reality they are the mobilisers (…) They are going to vote, ”he stressed.

The vision of a Nigerian from the diaspora based in Ireland also reflects the sentiment of another sector. Jude Edozie is studying to graduate as a pharmacist. He cannot participate in the elections from abroad, but he does not miss any detail of a process that could define the future of his country.

Edozie hopes that these elections will be different, they may even determine his return to the homeland. “I don’t plan on going back anytime soon, but the way it ends will make the chances of that happening either up or down,” she concluded.

With Reuters, AP and EFE