Presidential elections Paraguay: between continuity or renewal

First modification: 04/30/2023 – 2:30 p.m.

The ruling Colorado party will try to stay in power in these elections through the candidate Santiago Peña, a 44-year-old economist. His political opponent Efraín Alegre, a 60-year-old lawyer who leads the center-left coalition, Concertación Nacional.

The Colorado party has governed Paraguay since the 1950s, under a dictatorship and a democracy, with a single interruption during the government of leftist Fernando Lugo (2008-2012), who was dismissed by Congress a year before the end of his term.

For these elections, the latest polls refer to a technical tie between Peña and Alegre. “Usually at this point, the Colorado Party had guaranteed elections, which is not happening this time. We arrived on election day with a scenario in which anyone could be the winner,” political analyst Sebastián Acha told AFP.

Get rid of corruption

The electoral campaign took place simultaneously with United States sanctions against some of the most important Colorado leaders, such as former president Horacio Cartes (2013-18), a wealthy tobacco businessman, party president and political godfather of candidate Peña. In 2022 he was designated significantly corrupt by the State Department, which banned him from entering the United States. In March he was sanctioned by the Treasury.

“These accusations, by the time they come out, somehow turn the elections into a plebiscite against or in favor of corruption,” Acha opined.

The speech of the Alegre candidate has focused on attacking corruption and organized crime. “Our institutions are in danger because of the money from illegality, from organized crime, which buys prosecutors, buys judges, and bribes parliamentarians. The first task we have is legal security, to return justice to the country,” he told the AFP in a recent interview.

On the subject of drug trafficking, Paraguay, in the center of South America, is considered a transit point for drugs to Brazil and Argentina to be later sent to Europe and Asia. In 2022, the anti-mafia prosecutor Marcelo Pecci and the mayor José Carlos Acevedo were murdered, crimes attributed to drug trafficking.

Although Paraguay has one of the fastest growing economies in Latin America, it enjoys a forecast of 4.5% of GDP for 2023, according to the International Monetary Fund. The poverty index reaches 24.7%, with enormous inequalities. For example, in Asunción, in the flood-prone areas on the banks of the Paraguay River, wooden shacks are multiplying where vulnerable families live without access to basic services.

Given this, the ruling party candidate has proposed creating 500,000 jobs, although without clarifying how. Alegre, for its part, advocates incorporating the informal sector into the national economy, which covers 40% of workers.

Foreign policy under debate

During the campaign, foreign policy issues were on the table. Alegre insisted on analyzing the continuity of Paraguay’s diplomatic ties with Taiwan. “Relations with Taiwan mean the loss of one of the largest markets that is China. Paraguay makes a very important effort, a very big resignation, to have relations with Taiwan, but we are not seeing the same effort from Taiwan,” he remarked.

Meanwhile, Peña once again raised the issue of recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, announcing his willingness to once again install the headquarters of his embassy in that city. A measure that, in line with Donald Trump, Cartes had taken at the end of his government and that current president Mario Abdo reversed.

“I would go back to Jerusalem. I am convinced that there are Christian reasons and also political reasons. The State of Israel recognizes Jerusalem as its capital. The seat of Congress is in Jerusalem, the president is in Jerusalem. So who are we to question where do they establish their own capital?” Peña said.

Undoubtedly, the results of this presidential election are highly anticipated on the continent. According to the electoral law, this contest is of a single round, that is, it is won with a simple majority for a period of five years, without the possibility of re-election.