Polls suggest another Türkiye is possible

After the first projections of results in the municipal elections in Turkey last Sunday, some opposition activists could not believe their eyes: the Islamist party AKP, founded by the president of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, was heading for its first defeat electoral of its more than two decades of history in national elections. The main opposition party, the secular and social democratic CHP, was the most voted, obtaining almost 38% of the votes, compared to 35% for the AKP. The result shows that, despite Erdogan's authoritarian drift in the last decade, another Turkey is still possible.

The CHP's victory was incontestable, as it not only took over all of the country's major cities, revalidating its hegemony in the capital, Ankara, and Istanbul, but also achieved significant progress in the conservative interior regions, a fiefdom of the AKP. Specifically, the party founded by Kemal Ataturk won in 35 of the 81 provincial capitals. This result contrasts with his disappointing defeat in the presidential and legislative elections ten months ago, in which Erdogan defeated them for the umpteenth time in his more than 20 years in power.

Although his name was not on the ballot this time, this is a personal and painful defeat for the tireless Turkish leader. Compared to the 2019 municipal elections, the AKP dropped almost ten points and two million votes. At 70 years old, Erdogan was omnipresent throughout the campaign, especially in Istanbul, and did not hesitate to give a national dimension to the contest. Not surprisingly, there was a lot at stake. With 16 million inhabitants, Istanbul concentrates almost a fifth of the country's population and 30% of its GDP and can constitute a counterpower to the central government.

For this reason, the megalopolis has the capacity to propel its mayors into national politics. This is what happened with Erdogan himself in 2002, and the same could happen with Ekrem Imamoglu, the charismatic mayor of Istanbul, who revalidated his 2019 victory by beating his rival, Murat Kurum, a former AKP Environment Minister, by more of ten points.

The main conclusion of the contest is that democracy is still very much alive in Türkiye. After Erdogan's victory in last year's presidential election, the opposition feared that the country would sink into a totalitarian system, like Putin's Russia, with no room for dissent. However, the polls suggest that the country's democratic soul resists. In fact, that seemed to be the conclusion of Erdogan himself, who exhibited unusual humility in his speech on Sunday night. Instead of launching a tirade against his opponents, something common even in moments of success, the president expressed his “respect for the nation's decision” and assured that he would examine the reasons for the defeat to resolve the citizens' grievances. .

Analysts have pointed to the battered state of the economy to explain the unexpected verdict at the polls. Because of 67% inflation and a severely devalued Turkish lira, many Turks are having trouble making ends meet. Last year, the economy was already in bad shape after years of erratic economic policy, but Erdogan claimed during the campaign to know how to fix it. After the elections, and with empty coffers, he changed his economic policy and appointed a new team that applied orthodox measures aimed at stabilizing the country's finances. This has translated into more inflation and unemployment, and the big question now is whether, after the electoral setback, Erdogan will stay the course.

The perception of a good part of the citizens is that Erdogan's promises a year ago of an economic renaissance have proven empty. For this reason, a part of his electorate has decided to punish him with abstention, voting for the opposition or a more radical Islamist party, the New Welfare Party, led by Fatih Erbakan. Curiously, this politician is the son of Erdogan's mentor and former prime minister of the country, Necmettin Erbakan, deposed by a “soft coup” by the Army in the nineties. Fatih Erbakan has refounded his father's party and, after breaking his alliance with the AKP a few months ago, has made it the third most voted in the country in these elections (more than 6% of the votes), and the conservative alternative for those disenchanted AKP voters.

The pro-Kurdish DEM party, with a new acronym for having been outlawed again, also obtained a good result, and even increased the number of mayors under its control – as long as they are not dissolved again. On the other hand, the big losers were the ultranationalist parties of the MHP and IYI, which were harmed by the fact that, unlike what happened in last year's presidential elections, this time national security issues, such as immigration or insurgency in Kurdistan, did not monopolize the agenda.

Despite its debacle, it is still early to announce the end of the AKP's long hegemony. There are still four years until the next legislative and presidential elections, and Erdogan will continue to control all the levers of power during this time, including Justice and the media. Furthermore, the economic situation could be very different in 2028, in the next election. One of the big doubts in Turkey is whether the president will keep his promise and retire at the end of his term, four years from now. In fact, the Constitution obliges him to do so, but many in the opposition fear that he will devise some strategy to try to remain in power. In the event of his withdrawal, Imamoglu would be the great favorite to take over as president. Indeed, many in the CHP lamented Sunday night that the mayor of Istanbul had not been the opposition candidate last year. Be that as it may, for now, change will have to wait in Turkey, although now it seems a much more realistic expectation.