Europe

polls give double the votes to Labor

polls give double the votes to Labor

Wednesday afternoon, Rishi Sunak left 10 Downing Street. She stood behind a lectern two meters from her door, under the fine London rain, and sang the most anticipated speech of that day before cameras from around the world. Already soaked, the British Prime Minister made the announcement that had been rumored all Wednesday: “There will be general elections on July 4”.

The call has surprised many, both from the opposition and the Conservative Party that he leads. The latest survey by the British Polling Council, published on May 20, gives the Labor 44.6% of the votes, double the 22.6% support predicted for the ruling party. Then, confirming that the British system is no longer two-party, Reform UK – Nigel Farage’s former Brexit Party – with 11.3%, the Liberal Democrats with 9.8% and the Green Party with 6.5% .

The call for elections leaves Sunak in a position of weakness, and comes after months of frustration by the Conservative Party with the electorate. At the beginning of the month, the tories They obtained a disastrous result in the municipal elections on May 2, where Labor achieved a “historic” victory in the words of its leader, Keir Starmertaking over from Jeremy Corbyn since April 2020.


In 2021, three Mays ago, Starmer himself considered resigning after the Labor Party’s failure in the municipal elections that year. Now, the polls give them a large absolute majority that doubles the opposition’s odds before the ruling party after 14 years of conservative governments without alternation.

The change in Labor’s fortunes is explained by the internal struggles of the Conservatives, the disciplining of the opposition, the detour towards the center of the party and the constant campaign that has been carried out in recent months. Although Starmer has sometimes been accused of lacking charisma, his understated style has proven to be a strength for Labour, as scandals, political spin and conspiracies among the Conservatives have undermined the ruling party’s prestige.

[Los laboristas logran una “histórica” victoria en las municipales y exigen a Sunak convocar elecciones]

The rise in popularity of the Labor Party had its greatest exponent in the maritime district of Blackpool South, where candidate Chris Webb tripled the votes of his conservative opponent in the municipal elections. In an intervention in this town, Starmer then took advantage of the success to demand new elections: “It was not a small message, it was a cry from Blackpool, which speaks throughout the country. After 14 years of failure and declinewe have to turn the page and open a new era with Labor,” he proclaimed on May 2.

This Wednesday, Starmer celebrated the upcoming elections as an opportunity to end the “chaos” Conservative: “A vote for Labor is a vote for stability—economic and political—a policy that treads more lightly in all of our lives; a vote to stop the chaos. It’s time for change“, he harangued, and promised economic stability, reducing waiting times in health services, securing national borders and cutting electricity bills.

After July 5, the leadership of the Conservatives is still unclear. Sunak is fighting to gain control of the party, and some lawmakers are already debating who will replace him after what many consider an inevitable electoral defeat. Some party members say his tenure as prime minister has been marked by missed opportunities. Others, that he was the wrong man for the position, more technocrat than leader.

A member of the Conservative Party told Reuters that had become increasingly distant. “His team often leaves him alone in his office, he likes to have his own time,” she said, on condition of anonymity. “His flaw is telling people that they are wrong, both his advisors and the deputies.”

[Golpe de los laboristas a Sunak: los ‘tories’ sufren la peor derrota electoral desde la II Guerra Mundial]

Everything seemed very different when the former investment banker and former Economy Minister took office less than two years ago, inheriting an economy in crisis after the financial markets’ rejection of the underfunded fiscal and spending plans of his predecessor’s short-lived mandate. Liz Truss.

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