Pedro Sánchez’s European career is complicated by the electoral advance and his pacts with radicals

The rotating presidency of the European Union designed by Pedro Sánchez’s team, with a pharaonic profile compared to the austerity shown by Sweden in this first semester, anticipated a series of beautifully crafted postcards for half of Spain prepared with great detail to reinforce the image of the Government at the dawn of general elections initially scheduled for the end of this year. That’s why, the announcement of the electoral advance has surprised even more in Brusselswhere it was assumed that the President of the Government would not give up under any circumstances the showcase that has been building for several months.

In fact, it is precisely the feeling of astonishment and not that of concern that predominates in the community capital where, after learning about Sánchez’s decision in the press, it is made clear that the impact on the work of the Council of the European Union will be minimal, as it was also in 2022 when France held elections during its semester. Holding the current presidency entails a series of minor obligations for the country, such as setting the agenda or moderating debates, and the bulk of the preparations will already be completed before the new Executive takes office. but above all It grants the benefit of giving a country and the members of its government greater visibility for six months. An option that the president seemed willing to exploit to improve his poster at the national level but also to shore up his international image. and his options to win one of the four big positions in the EU after the 2024 European elections.

The position of president of the Council, of the Commission or of the European Parliament or that of High Representative Abroad of the EU were already a chimera for Sánchez

However, the electoral advance could do no more than shore up these aspirations. The sources consulted assure this newspaper that they already seemed increasingly remote in recent months and that the restlessness could have contributed, precisely, to precipitating the call on July 23. In fact, there are several elements that indicate that the position of president of the Council, of the Commission or of the European Parliament or that of High Representative Abroad of the EU had already been a chimera for Sánchez for some time.

To begin with, the good personal image that Sánchez has among most European leaders contrasts with the contradictory alliances that the PSOE has woven in Spain in order to govern. To the coalition with Podemos, submerged in the minority and residual group of La Izquierda in Europe, are added all the pacts carried out with nationalists and independentistas that, with the exception of the PNV, enrolled in the ranks of the European Liberals, they are all in parties that are part of the opposition in the EU. However, the PSOE has collided in Spain head-on and almost systematically with the PP and Ciudadanos, members of the two political families that constitute its great allies at the European level. “At the national and European level, it has only been consistent with the PNV in the agreement and with Vox in the clash,” highlights a Spanish diplomatwhich ensures that these pacts do not go unnoticed in Europe and can weigh like a stone for a candidate for a high position.

On the other hand, Sánchez is not the member of the Government with the best poster in Europe and the best fit into its gears. So much the Vice President and Minister of Economy, Nadia Calviño, as well as the Minister of Agriculture, Luis Planas, both with extensive and respected careers in Europe, or even the Vice President and Minister of Ecological Transition, Teresa Ribera, who has shone with her own light in Brussels in the energy crisis, would have an easier landing in the upper echelons of the community than the president himself. “Five years later, Calviño continues to be the great bulwark of the Government in European affairs and his past and his independent status could lead to his return even if the PSOE lost the elections,” says a former high-ranking Spanish official who attributes the news about Sánchez’s future European options more to the national press than to community corridors.

Nor does it escape anyone that the label of recently defeated does not exactly give luster to a candidate

The truth is the victory of the PSOE on 23-J is not a condition either sine qua non so that Sánchez enters the European pools in mid-2024. Rather, I would separate him for obvious reasons. But if in the last decades Europe has always tried to raise to the command of its institutions politicians who had previously led their countries, it does not escape anyone that the label of recently defeated does not exactly give luster to a candidate. Added to this is the difficult balance between countries and political forces to cover key positions, and there appears Germany. Always Germany, which pulls her strings like no one else in favor of her interests. In this sense, the sources consulted highlight that Sánchez is not particularly in tune with Olaf Scholz, despite being of the same political sign, and that the chancellor does not rule out supporting the continuity at the head of the European Commission of his countryman Ursula von der Leyen, of the CDU, in exchange for other concessions . An unthinkable support in the case of Sánchez that would have a frontal rejection of the PP in the event that Feijóo is in power and that the European Social Democrats put the name of the still Spanish president on the negotiating table.

The 2024 European elections

However, there is still a major obstacle for Sánchez that has been glimpsed for a long time in the corridors of the institutions, and that is that The next European elections could mean a real earthquake and an unprecedented break in the coalition around the European center. The disagreements between the traditional forces, the irruption of new orientations and the increasingly moderate anti-European language of the populist parties could upset the balance, leave the Social Democrats out of power and, therefore, Pedro Sánchez definitively in power. offside.

There are too many loose ends to think that a landing in Brussels could be a realistic option

It is undeniable that the President of the Government has tried to take special care of his image abroad over the last five years and that he has paid special attention to European affairs, with which he has always had an affinity, as shown by his time in Parliament Europe as a consultant in the late 90s. But there are too many loose ends to think that a landing in Brussels could be a realistic option. At least in the European institutions since, in another example of the president’s survival instinct, He has managed to make his name sound out of the blue in recent days in the corridors of another headquarters weight of the Belgian capital as are the NATO headquarters.