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Georgia holds key parliamentary elections this Saturday for its European future amid growing tensions between the Caucasian country and the West due to the current government’s rapprochement with the Kremlin. “Our country needs a clear European future. It is a question of war and peace, and society must choose peace,” Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobajidze said on the eve of the vote.
Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine the ruling Georgian Dream party has adopted policies and passed laws that the opposition and Western institutions have seen as aligning with repressive Russian legislation. In fact, more than 3.5 million Georgians are called to the polls to elect 150 deputies just when, according to Brussels, “relations between Georgia and the European Union are at a historic low”.
All polls assume the victory of Georgian Dream is certain. Some even give him around 60% of the votes, which would guarantee him the possibility of governing alone.
The authorities boast that, despite the conflict in Ukraine, the economic situation in the country has improved and, in fact, the World Bank has raised growth forecasts for this year to 7.5%. However, others specify that he will only obtain a third of the votes, which would pave the way for the opposition, whose shadow leader, the former president Mikhail Saakashviliis in prison.
The opposition has united for the first time in many years. It has formed four coalitions, which have agreed to cohabit and forge a technical government if they achieve a parliamentary majority. According to the polls, these four electoral alliances could overcome the barrier of 5% of the votes and access Parliament.
His ace in the hole is the EU’s decision to freeze negotiations with Tbilisi after the recent approval of a law that persecutes organizations financed from abroad. The opposition sees the call as a kind of referendum between Georgia’s return to the pro-Western path or the country’s transformation into a Russian satellite.
The shadow of war
Georgian Dream, which accuses the opposition of wanting to turn the country into a “second front” against Russia, has resorted to the fear of war to improve its chances of victory. “No to war, choose peace”is the motto of the ruling party. The street signs include two photos, one with images of the destruction in Ukraine, and another with an idyllic image of the Caucasian country.
The founder of the ruling formation, Bidzina Ivanishvilihas assured in recent months that the West wants to use his country as “cannon fodder.”
The current government, in power since 2012, insists that relations with the West will improve after the presidential elections in the US and remembers that it was it that included (2017) in the Constitution the aspiration to join the European bloc and NATO . “The elections coincide with the alarming geopolitical situation due to the war in Ukraine. I call on all those who love the country, all patriots, to vote. You may not like Georgian Dream, but you must vote for peace and stability “he noted.
Less than 24 hours to go before the elections in Georgia. The Kremlin is doing everything in their power to help GD win and make the country another puppet state under Putin.
We can do our part here on social media – let’s amplify all pro-democratic Georgian voices! pic.twitter.com/2dCYyFfxdd
— Pekka Kallioniemi (@P_Kallioniemi) October 25, 2024
The Ivanishvili factor
Ivanishvili, a 68-year-old tycoon, is not only the richest man in the country, but the most powerful. Former collaborators explain that all decisions go through his office, even though he does not hold any official position. The opposition believes that Ivanishvili, who made his fortune in Russia, has launched a “collaborationist policy”which includes the opening of direct flights with Moscow in May 2023 and the proposal to apologize to the separatist region of South Ossetia for the 2008 war.
Analysts have warned of possible anti-government protests in the event of suspected fraud, but Ivanishvili poured cold water on those fears. “Despite possible attempts at destabilization, everything will go well. No provocation will work. We will go to bed and wake up peacefully on the 27th,” he said, although the opposition has already reserved the central Rustaveli Avenue to demonstrate after the closure of the schools.
The well-known youth activist Sandro Kinkladze He announced that he will go out with his supporters “or with champagne to celebrate the defeat of Georgian Dream or with physiological saline (to rub his eyes) if the riot police appear.” “Ivanishvili knows that his mandate is over. He is nervous because he fears losing his wealth. Leave the country alone! Accept it, you have lost!” added the deputy Georgi Vashadzefrom the Renaissance party.
The Kremlin denied interference in the Georgian elections, although the head of the Foreign Espionage Service, Sergei Narishkinwas convinced that Georgians will make the “correct” decision by voting for “patriotic forces.”
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