Sobhy Makhoul points to the “concerns” that the Emirates have already expressed in relation to compliance with the “Abrahamic Accords”. The real critical point is the “distribution of ministries”, with the claims of Ben Gvir’s extreme right. The collapse of Meretz and the distancing of the Arab parties. At stake is the prime minister’s ability to translate the “pacification speech” he delivered on the eve of the election into policy.
Jerusalem () – The result of the elections in Israel, with the victory of Benjamin Netanyahu and above all the high consensus achieved by the nationalist and religious extreme right, has already aroused “concern” in the Arab world and in the Gulf, especially in the United Arab Emirates. Now it will be possible to see the true capacity of the veteran prime minister “to manage the allies” and translate “the speech of pacification and moderation that he delivered on the eve of the vote” into government policies. For Sobhy Makhoul, a member of the Jerusalem Maronite Church and former administrator of the Christian Media Centerr, “the 65 seats that the projections assign to the majority” should allow a “stable” legislature after many turbulent years, but the real crux will be “the division of the ministries” between the different souls of the coalition.
This morning the Yesh Atid party of outgoing Prime Minister Yair Lapid reported that procedures for a “swift and responsible” transfer of government have already begun. With 93% of the votes counted, the left-wing Meretz party (3.15%) remains below the 3.25% threshold and seems destined for exclusion from the Knesset, the Israeli parliament. Netanyahu’s Likud should get 32 seats, Yesh Atid 24 and the religious far-right 14. Only five seats for Ra’am, reflecting the electorate’s punishment of divisions within the Arab world.
It remains to be seen what weight the result of the vote by mail will have in the total number of seats, with at least “400,000 votes still to be assigned,” explains Sobhy Makhoul, although he believes that “the figures that are known should not change Until now”. The final result will be announced on November 9 with the official communication from the Electoral Commission to the President of the Republic; two days later the consultations will begin, with the mandate given to Netanyahu, who will have two weeks (plus a third, if necessary) to define the structure of the government.
“When the ministries are discussed – continues the Christian leader – the problems will begin. [Itamar] Ben Gvir wants the Interior to control the police, and there is also talk of Defense, but it is unlikely that the prime minister in pectore will hand over such important portfolios. He is more likely to offer them Economics, Finance or even Education, which for religious nationalists is of great value because it allows them to decide the resources and curriculum of institutions, including religious ones”.
On the other hand, he describes as a “setback” the clear defeat of Meretz, which inevitably changes the votes in Parliament and the balance of power in the country. “In the coming weeks – he continues – Netanyahu’s strength and intelligence will be seen to keep Ben Gvir under control and reassure the new allies in the Arab world, who have already given (first of all to Abu Dhabi, main sponsor of the Abraham Accords) signs of concern”.
Similar sentiments are felt in “civil society and moderate Israelis”, who fear a radical drift. “At this moment, more than in the past -he says- it will be possible to evaluate the political capacity of the prime minister”, but the feeling prevails that even the Jewish Power party “will end up tempering its extremist ideology and radical proclamations when it participates in the government “.
Finally, the Christian leader highlights “the high participation in the vote” with the figures “highest since 2015” and the “radicalization of the country, increasingly leaning towards the extreme right”. A trend, he concludes, “probably favored by some dark episodes that have occurred in recent months”, such as the attack in Tel Aviv carried out by alleged “lone wolves”, which is considered a serious threat to the country and about which “never again nothing was known.”
