Editor’s note: Jorge G. Castañeda is a contributor. He was Secretary of Foreign Affairs of Mexico from 2000 to 2003, during the government of Vicente Fox Quesada. He is currently a professor at New York University and his most recent book, “America Through Foreign Eyes,” was published by Oxford University Press in 2020. The opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author. You can find more opinion articles at E.com/opinion.
( Spanish) – The impact of the 2024 US presidential election in Latin America varies from country to country and perhaps the best way to assess the influence of the presidential vote in the United States is issue by issue, understanding that some are much more important for certain countries. than for others.
Probably the most relevant issue in the campaign for Latin America is immigration. At first glance, it seems that a victory for Donald Trump would be catastrophic for USAwhile a Kamala Harris hit could be perceived as less damaging. But given the close similarity between the actual policies of the first Trump administration regarding migrants and the positions of President Joe Biden, as well as Harris’ campaign statements, the contrast becomes less obvious.
The next president will most likely take a harder line on immigration than his predecessors, but with predictable limits imposed by courts, migration activists and governments of countries of origin, which will not be easily accepted. to large numbers of deportees.
In relation to another crucial issue for some Latin American nations, that is, drugs and organized crime, a similar situation is likely to prevail. America’s perpetual war on drugs is now on fentanyl, largely involving Mexico. Fentanyl overdose caused in 2023 almost 75,000 deaths, according to the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Both Harris and Trump have taken a tough stance on the issue, and although the former president is more strident – as in almost everything – it seems likely that a new Democratic administration will continue to pressure Mexico and China to do more to stop transfers of precursor chemicals. of that substance from Asia to Mexico, where the pills are produced and transshipped to the United States. According to wrote In his memoir Mark Esper, Trump’s Secretary of Defense, the former president threatened to bomb drug laboratories in other countries, which is, of course, implausible, but a more interventionist approach by Washington is almost certain, whether who is the winner.
The crisis in Venezuela, triggered by dictator Nicolás Maduro by stealing the presidential elections held in June 2024, is another issue of dispute between the United States and at least part of Latin America, which the next administration will be seen forced to board. Despite clear evidence of opposition victory, there are few discernible obstacles to Maduro remaining in power and assuming a new mandate on January 10, 2025. All of this puts Venezuela’s Latin American neighbors and the next administration in Washington at odds. a no-win situation. If Trump is re-elected, he may consider returning to the “maximum pressure” strategy that failed in his first term. If Harris wins, she could consider preserving Biden’s policy of applying some sanctions and lifting others, in exchange for political commitments from Maduro, a strategy that also failed.
While the Cuban question has plagued Washington since 1959, and while unprecedented migrant flows from the island have generated new tensions with the United States, it is perhaps a less crucial issue today. Several hundred thousand Cubans have arrived to the US from 2022, as the island is going through its worst economic crisis since the revolution. Although Trump’s tightening of sanctions against Havana did not succeed in overthrowing the regime or making it more flexible in its negotiations with Washington, Barack Obama’s 2015-2016 thaw did not make much difference either, at least in terms of an opening policy. Under normal circumstances, the next administration could simply ignore the island, but the immigration issue will not allow this to happen.
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