OPEC believes that oil will continue to be relevant in the future. And he has hopes set in Mexico

Energy revolution yes; oil, too. Even though the USA, European Union, Japan either China have already set themselves the goal of reducing their emissions by moving away from fossil fuels, the big oil powers believe that crude oil has a long way to go. This has just been recognized by Haitham al-Ghais, secretary of the organization that groups them worldwide, OPEC. What’s more, the manager has not only shared his predictions; during a visit to Mexico He insisted that the country still has the capacity to invest in refining.

What future does OPEC expect? One with oil, of course. At least for the next few decades. Al-Ghais recalled that OPEC’s global forecasts contemplate both an increase in the population and in the world economy, which in turn will have a clear reflection in energy consumption.

“All this demand will not be able to be faced with just one source. All energy sources are required to complement it,” reflected the organization’s secretary general, according to a statement of the Mexican Ministry of Energy.

And what figures do you handle? Not everything is evaluations, nor good words. In your annual reportOPEC already left two interesting predictions: first, that by the mid-2040s the global population will have grown from the current 8,000 million people to 9,500 million, calculations in tune with those of the UN. Second, that the global Gross Domestic Product is expected to increase an average of 3% per year until 2045, so that by then the planet’s economy will double the size of that registered just two years ago.

With these data as a background and calculating that in 2045 the global primary demand for energy will grow 23%Al-Ghais expects the oil industry to continue to play a key role. By then the agency calculates that oil will represent almost a third – 30%, to be more precise – of the energy mix. If his predictions come true, by the mid-40s of this century the demand for oil will be around 110 million barrels per day (mbd).

What message has he sent in Mexico? A few days ago Al-Ghais visited the country’s capital to participate in the ‘World Oil Market’ conference, an appointment that allowed him to interview with the president of the country, López Obrador, and the Secretary of Energy, Rocío Nahle. Also to transmit a clear message for locals and strangers: oil will continue to play an important role in the coming decades and Mexico has the capacity to invest in its refining.

Al-Ghais insisted that the country is “key” for OPEC, congratulated the Government for the investment at the Olmeca refinery, Dos Bocas —where Pemex has approved a million-dollar deployment— and stressed the importance of “ensuring self-sufficiency” in energy. They were not their only assessments there. According to collect a statement Posted on the Executive’s official website, he insisted that “producing countries, including Mexico, have a very important task” for the future.

We are pleased to receive the Secretary General of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Haitham Al-Ghais and his companions. It is the first time that an authority representing oil-producing countries visits Mexico. We understood each other well, requetebién. pic.twitter.com/Qk2RzS1o84

– Andrés Manuel (@lopezobrador_) March 9, 2023

What role does Mexico play? According to the Statista tables, in 2021 Mexico was the 12th largest oil producer, with a contribution of barrels per day far from the top positions, occupied by the US, Saudi Arabia and Russia. The truth is that its weight has little to see today with that of decades ago: the history of Enerdata shows that in 1990 Mexico produced 151 million tons (Mt) of crude, which made it the fifth country on a global scale. In 2004 it was already around 191 Mt, but in 2019 and 2020 it remained below the 100 barrier.

Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex), a state company, is today one of the oil companies more in debt and has become a net importer of hydrocarbons. The Government has also decided to bet on renewables, with a huge solar park in Sonora that will require a million-dollar investment. In 2021, coinciding with buying a plant From Deer Park, in Houston, López Obrador claimed in any case the Mexican oil dream: “It’s the best business in the world”.

Cover image: Magical Mexico (Flickr)

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